WK Kellogg Co (NYSE:KLG) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 27% share price jump in the last month. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 89%.
Although its price has surged higher, there still wouldn't be many who think WK Kellogg Co's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Food industry is similar at about 0.9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.
How Has WK Kellogg Co Performed Recently?
WK Kellogg Co could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Keen to find out how analysts think WK Kellogg Co's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.How Is WK Kellogg Co's Revenue Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like WK Kellogg Co's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 2.5% decrease to the company's top line. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 11% overall rise in revenue. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 0.2% per year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 3.0% each year.
With this information, we find it concerning that WK Kellogg Co is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On WK Kellogg Co's P/S
WK Kellogg Co appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our check of WK Kellogg Co's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking revenue isn't bringing down its P/S as much as we would have predicted. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If the declining revenues were to materialize in the form of a declining share price, shareholders will be feeling the pinch.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with WK Kellogg Co, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.