Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Yu Jing

Southeast Asia's “little Tencent.” $Sea (SE.US)$ In the e-commerce sector, it has regained profitability, leading analysts to be more bullish on its stock price. So far this year, its market cap has increased by 43 billion dollars. Since Sea announced its earnings report earlier this month, seven investment banks, including morgan stanley and deutsche bank, have raised their target price.

Analysts expect Sea's adjusted profits to nearly double this year and achieve similar growth again in 2025. Sea's latest quarterly results show that the company has successfully resisted pressure from e-commerce competitors while its gaming business has also performed strongly.

morgan stanley analyst Divya Gangahar Kothiyal wrote in a report: “Sea's performance in ASEAN is solid, and the execution of profit growth is continually improving.” She noted that competition in e-commerce in the region has remained stable, and Sea has also benefited from its Brazilian and live-streaming businesses, as well as higher merchant commissions.

This year, Sea's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) have surged by 186%, exceeding the MSCI Singapore index, which is primarily composed of locally listed stocks. The rise in stock prices has pushed the valuation to expensive levels, putting pressure on Sea to announce good performance.

Analysts' expectations are indeed impressive, as their average target price has risen by 21% since the earnings report was released. Anxiety in the options market has also eased, with Sea's hedging costs declining after a surge in August.

Bloomberg intelligence analyst Nathan Naidu wrote in a report: "With the recovery of the gaming publishing business and the improved profitability of the e-commerce sector Shopee, Sea's profits will further expand." He added that future catalysts include gaming collaborations with Tencent, in-house e-commerce logistics, and providing more loans to quality borrowers in the fintech field.

Even though Sea's ADR has recently surged significantly, it is still nearly 70% lower than the pandemic-driven peak in 2021. In addition to concerns about e-commerce profitability, Sea's gaming business is also seen as overly reliant on the classic hit game "Free Fire," which was originally released in 2017.

These concerns have been somewhat alleviated. Deutsche Bank analyst Peter Milliken wrote in a report that "Free Fire" has at least seen a temporary "recovery," and management emphasized the progress of new games during the earnings call.

Milliken stated: "Sea is focused on maintaining or increasing market share on one hand while concentrating on profitability on the other, with this effort proving successful. Importantly, the company is no longer a gaming company that funds other emerging businesses, but is transforming into a company with three profitable sectors."

Editor/Jeffy