Key investment points

Shuanglin Co., Ltd.: Mainly engaged in interior and exterior and wheel bearings. The main product is seat drive (1) revenue split: the interior and exterior business accounted for 57% of revenue in '23, the wheel bearing business accounted for 29%, and the overall gross margin was about 20%. (2) Margins: 24Q3 The company's net profit to mother was at its best level in 10 years.

Planetary roller screws: A new growth curve is about to open. They have technology and first-mover advantages (1) Demand side: Planetary roller screws are necessary and important for humanoid robots. Optimus expects to use 14-16 planetary roller screws each, and the single value center is expected to exceed 2,000 yuan. (2) Features: Strong ability and high requirements. The bearing capacity of a planetary roller screw is 6 times that of a roller screw, the lifespan is 14 times that of a roller screw, and the space can be saved 1/3. The inverted planetary roller screw used in humanoid robots removes the internal gear ring. The structure is compact and the weight is smaller, but the processing requirements are higher. (3) Market and competition: The stock market is small, and foreign capital dominates.

In 2023, China's screw market size was 2.57 billion, planetary roller screws accounted for only 4%, and foreign capital accounted for 85% of the market.

The domestic planetary roller screw industry is in a period of growth, and the competitive pattern is scattered. As China's manufacturing level continues to rise, high-end downstream demand will continue to emerge. It can replace ball screws and trapezoidal screws downward, and the penetration rate of planetary roller screws will continue to increase. (4) Company advantage: The company is the HDM invisible champion, and it has the same origin as planetary roller screw technology. The company is one of the largest HDM production and sales enterprises in China, and the process has reached the international advanced level; HDM customer resources are high, and supporting seat companies include Faurecia and Lear; the company's HDM revenue is expected to reach 0.7 billion yuan in 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 10.4%; HDM and planetary roller screws are similar in terms of transmission mode, carrying requirements and control accuracy, and the company occupies technical and R&D advantages.

New energy motors: 3-in-1 motors performed well, with a double increase in gross profit (1) Market: High growth rate and concentration. In '23, China's new energy vehicles were equipped with 8.33 million drive motors, an increase of 44%, and CR10 was 73%. The company's market share is about 3%, ranking 9th, and sales volume increased by 44.7% year on year, and is expected to continue to increase in the future. (2) Company: 24H1 New Energy Motor's revenue also increased 266%, and gross margin increased significantly. This was mainly due to mass production of 180 3-in-1 motors. Currently, 220 platform motors are being developed. The company's newly acquired BAIC Foton Electric Project and the Wuling Commercial Vehicle Motor Electronic Control 2-in-1 Electric Bridge Project are expected to gradually expand, and the company's new energy motor business will develop rapidly.

Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 24-26 to be 4.75, 5.36, and 6.11 billion yuan, up 14.7%, 12.9%, 14.0%, and CAGR 13.9%; net profit to mother of 0.31, 0.36, 0.41 billion yuan, up 280.8%, 17.4%, 14.5%, CAGR 24.3%; corresponding PE is 25, 22, 19, giving a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: NEV industry growth rate falls short of expectations, market competition intensifies