According to a research report from ubs group, ali health (00241) management stated that they reaffirmed the target of a 10% or more revenue growth in the fiscal year 2025, with adjusted net profit exceeding 2 billion yuan; the target revenue for the fiscal year 2026 is also expected to grow by 10% or more, with adjusted net profit between 2.3 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan. From the second half of the fiscal year 2025, revenue growth will be driven by the accelerated growth of prescription drugs and the continued growth of over-the-counter drugs. The firm believes that the company's renewed emphasis on prescription drugs reflects a pursuit of market share, which may be a condition for maintaining the current gross margin level.

Based on weak consumer activity, the firm has lowered its revenue forecast for over-the-counter drugs, but slightly raised the growth forecast for prescription drugs to reflect the company's strategy adjustment. Currently, it predicts that ali health's revenue will grow by 10.5%, 9.1%, and 10.2% for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Due to lower gross margins from prescription drug sales dilution and higher sales expense assumptions, the same-period net profit forecast has been downgraded. The firm has raised the company's target price from 3.3 HKD by 13.6% to 3.75 HKD, reflecting stronger expectations for prescription drugs to drive mid-term revenue growth. The new target price also reflects the company's higher adjusted pe compared to internet plus-related stocks and pharmaceutical stock peers, to account for faster expected profit growth. The rating is 'neutral.'