非广告业务：生成式AI 继续推动云计算业务增长。1）云计算业务：2024Q3云收入继续保持双位数增长， 同比增长11% （ 23Q4/24Q1/24Q2 为11%/12%/14%）。生成式AI 驱动云业务较快增长，2024 年11 月，文心系列模型处理的日均API 调用量达到15 亿次，较8 月的6 亿次大幅增加。根据IDC 2023 年中国人工智能公有云市场报告，百度智能云连续五年稳居AI云服务市场第一。24Q3 AI 在云收入中占比提升至11%（23Q4/24Q1/24Q2为4.8%/6.9%/9%）。2）智能驾驶业务：自动驾驶服务萝卜快跑业务进展顺利，Q3 提供的自动驾驶订单为98.8 万单，同比增长20%；全无人驾驶单量占全国总单量超过70%，2024 年10 月进一步增加至80%。截至2024 年10月28 日，萝卜快跑累计为公众提供的自动驾驶出行服务订单超过8 百万单。此外，第六代自动驾驶汽车RT6 已在中国多个城市的公开道路上运营。Performance Overview: 2024Q3's revenue is in line with market expectations, and adjusted net profit is lower than market expectations.
2024Q3's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, down 3% year on year, in line with Bloomberg's agreed expectations; non-GAAP operating profit was 7 billion yuan, down 8% year on year, weaker than Bloomberg's agreed expectations; non-GAAP net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, down 19% year on year, weaker than Bloomberg's agreed expectations. Since 2024Q3, the company's share repurchase amount is 0.161 billion US dollars, and the cumulative repurchase amount under the 2023 share repurchase plan has reached about 1.4 billion US dollars.
The advertising business is still under pressure in the short term, and the share of AI searches continues to rise. Baidu's core revenue for 24Q3 was 26.5 billion yuan, the same year-on-year rate, in line with Bloomberg's unanimous expectations. Among them, online marketing revenue was 18.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Advertisers generally remain cautious about advertising spending. In particular, small and medium-sized advertisers in various offline industries have yet to recover their intention to launch; at the same time, the company's acceleration in generative AI transformation of search products also affects short-term monetization efficiency. At the Q3 results conference, the company mentioned that currently more than 20% of search results include generative AI content, which is a further increase compared to 18% mentioned at the Q2 results conference. Q4 We expect the advertising business to remain weak, but considering that generative AI helps increase user participation and is superior to traditional advertising systems in terms of ad conversion rate and efficiency, we think its positive effects on Baidu's advertising business in the medium to long term are still worth looking forward to.
Non-advertising business: Generative AI continues to drive cloud computing business growth. 1) Cloud computing business: Cloud revenue continued to maintain double-digit growth in 2024Q3, up 11% year-on-year (23Q4/24Q1/24Q2 was 11%/12%/14%). Generative AI is driving rapid growth in the cloud business. In November 2024, the average number of API calls processed by Wenxin series models reached 1.5 billion per day, a significant increase from 0.6 billion in August. According to IDC's 2023 China Artificial Intelligence Public Cloud Market Report, Baidu Smart Cloud has been ranked first in the AI cloud service market for five consecutive years. 24Q3 AI's share of cloud revenue increased to 11% (4.8%/6.9%/9% in 23Q4/24Q1/24Q2). 2) Intelligent driving business: The autonomous driving service Radish Fast Run business is progressing smoothly. The number of autonomous driving orders provided in Q3 was 0.988 million, an increase of 20% over the previous year; the number of fully driverless vehicles accounted for more than 70% of the total number of units in the country, and further increased to 80% in October 2024. As of October 28, 2024, Radish Express has accumulated more than 8 million orders for autonomous travel services provided to the public. Furthermore, the sixth-generation autonomous vehicle RT6 is already operating on open roads in several cities in China.
Subsequent companies will continue to reduce losses and strive to improve Radish Fast Run UE.
Customer acquisition costs and cloud-related expenses have increased, partially offset by cost controls. Baidu's core non-gaap gross margin in 24Q3 was 59.1%, yoy-1.4pct, mainly due to the increase in traffic acquisition costs and costs associated with the smart cloud business, which was partially offset by a reduction in personnel related expenses and product sales costs. Baidu's core non-GAAP sales and management expenses were 4.7 billion yuan, accounting for 17.8% of Baidu's core revenue, yoy+0.8 pct. This was mainly due to increased channel expenses and marketing expenses, which were partially offset by a reduction in personnel related expenses. Baidu's core non-GAAP R&D expenses were 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 16.4% of Baidu's core revenue, yoy-2.1pct, mainly due to reduced personnel related expenses.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's Q3 profit was weaker than our expectations. We lowered the company's 2024-2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast from 27.2/29.5/31.6 billion yuan to 27.1/28.6/31 billion yuan, corresponding to 8 times non-GAAP PE in 2024. The company's continued repurchases reflect a focus on shareholder returns and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of technology development falling short of expectations, AI ethical risk, technical risk, competition risk.
