分业务看：核电阀门稳健；瑞帆节能盈利释放；半导体阀门在验证阶段1）瑞帆节能业务在三季度释放盈利：津西135MW 超超临界煤气发电项目自投入生产以来，在三季度开始效益分享。此外，邯钢能嘉钢铁煤气发电项目的1 号和2 号炉于2023 年10 月投入运行，并已陆续完成调试投产。随着这两个项目在2024 年全面进入效益分享期，预计将显著提升瑞帆节能的营业收入。2）半导体阀门业务：子公司神通半导体研发的真空阀门、超洁净阀门等已进入用户端样机验证阶段，尚处于市场拓展初期，暂未有批量化订单，未来有望实现更大规模的商业化应用。3）核电阀门：公司目前拥有的核电阀门年产能可以支持现有核电阀门的市场需求，公司计划通过再融资筹集资金，以扩大产能，预计新增的产能将能够为不少于4 个新建核电机组提供所需的阀门，公司的核电阀门确认收入和订单交付通常分布在订单确认后的第二至第三年。Key points:
Net profit for 24Q3 was 0.084 billion yuan, +10.56% year over year. The performance was in line with expectations. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.634 billion yuan, +5.87% year over year; net profit attributable to mother/withheld from mother was 0.228/0.206 billion yuan, respectively, +13.03%/15.53% year-on-year. Among them, in Q3, the company achieved revenue of 0.582 billion yuan, +6.95% YoY and +20.73% month-on-month; realized net profit attributed/withheld from mother 0.084/0.079 billion yuan, +10.56%/+27.65% YoY, and +40.54%/+70.25% month-on-month.
Sales gross margin/net margin increased by 1.72/0.86ppt in the first three quarters of 2024. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 32.18% in the first three quarters of 2024, +1.72ppt year on year; achieved a net profit margin of 13.92%, +0.86ppt year over year. Among them, 24Q3 achieved gross profit margin of 33.26%, +2.83ppt year over month, +0.18ppt month on month; achieved net profit margin of 14.46%, +0.45ppt year over year, and -2.09ppt month-on-month. In the first three quarters of 2024, sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates were 4.82%/5.34%/5.04%/1.15%, respectively, -0.30/+0.48/+1.19/ -0.21ppt, respectively; the Q3 sales/management/R&D/finance expenses rates were 4.32%/5.84%/1.12%, respectively, -0.54/+0.97/+2.30/ -0.39ppt.
By business: Nuclear power valves are stable; Ruifan energy saving profits are being released; semiconductor valves are in the verification phase 1) Ruifan's energy saving business released profits in the third quarter: The Jinxi 135MW ultra-supercritical gas power generation project began to share benefits in the third quarter since it was put into production. In addition, the No. 1 and No. 2 furnaces of the Hangang Nengjia Steel Gas Power Generation Project were put into operation in October 2023, and commissioning has been completed one after another. As these two projects fully enter the benefit-sharing period in 2024, it is expected to significantly increase Ruifan Energy's revenue. 2) Semiconductor valve business: Vacuum valves, ultra-clean valves, etc. developed by the subsidiary Shentsu Semiconductor have entered the user-side prototype verification stage. They are still in the early stages of market expansion. There are no batch orders yet, and it is expected that large-scale commercial applications will be realized in the future. 3) Nuclear power valves: The company's current annual production capacity of nuclear power valves can support the market demand for existing nuclear power valves. The company plans to raise capital through refinancing to expand production capacity. It is expected that the additional production capacity will be able to provide the valves needed for no less than 4 new nuclear power units. The company's nuclear power valve confirmation revenue and order delivery are usually distributed in the second to third year after the order is confirmed.
Investment advice
We expect the company to achieve revenue of 2.389/2.798/3.211 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, +12.0%/+17.1%/+14.8% year on year, and lower the net profit forecast to parent to 0.311/0.379/0.438 billion yuan (previous value was 0.361/0.454/0.577 billion yuan, mainly due to the volume of the company's nuclear power business and the pace or uncertainty of Ruifan's energy saving business profit release), +15.8% /+ over the same period last year 21.9%/15.5% is equivalent to 21/17/15 times the price-earnings ratio, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
Risks that tenders for nuclear power valves fall short of expectations. Risk of impairment of goodwill. Risk of metallurgical valve performance recovery falling short of expectations
