展望未来，PVC 与新品RPET 地板共振下底部向上空间可期。当下公司开启“第三次”创业，一方面，在产品、客户、管理及产能优势背书下，PVC 地板业务稳步修复，2024Q3公司单季度收入已修复至2.20 亿元，环比增长37.5%，同比增长856.5%。另一方面，2024年公司率先突破新品 RPET 地板的量产工艺，RPET 地板环保性（再生PET 材料）、外观精美度（3D 打印，仿真性）、耐水性等优势显著，美国下游品牌商及渠道商积极推广，且后续规模效应推动成本下行，有望加速终端渗透率提升。公司作为行业内率先可量产的供应商，有望搭乘欧美市场下游RPET 增长红利，打开业绩天花板。Tianzhen Co., Ltd. is deeply involved in the PVC flooring export business. At the stage of rapid PVC development, the company is ahead of its peers in scale with R&D advantages (multiple process innovations), product quality and supply stability, and binding high-quality customers. At the end of 2022, there was a phased decline in business due to the impact of supply chain traceability carried out by US Customs. Relying on the advantages of products and customer resources accumulated previously, the company is starting a “third venture”. On the one hand, it is actively preparing to build production bases in Southeast Asia and the US to optimize the supply chain, and the PVC flooring business has been repaired since 2024; on the other hand, the new RPET flooring was successfully launched in 2024, and downstream brands and channel players in the US are actively promoting it. The company is expected to take advantage of the dividends of rapid increase in European and American penetration rates to open up the performance ceiling.
Reviewing the past, we will see Tianzhen Co., Ltd. establish its market position in the PVC flooring era. The company was founded in 2003 in Anji, Zhejiang. Before it was traced back, its revenue peaked at 3.181 billion yuan in 2021, accounting for more than 7% of China's PVC flooring exports, leading its peers in scale. Compared with traditional floor decoration materials such as tiles, wooden flooring, etc., PVC flooring has outstanding advantages in terms of easy installation, wear and corrosion resistance, economy, etc., and the penetration rate increases rapidly. The penetration rate of PVC flooring in the US increased to 21.5% in 2021, an increase of 12.6 pcts compared to 2017, second only to carpets.
Based on the present, we can see that Tianzhen Co., Ltd.'s business resilience has been evident after experiencing external pressure. The company's business has been repaired in 2024, and operational resilience has been highlighted, thanks to the advantages of management, product development, customer resources, and overseas production capacity layout accumulated in the previous two entrepreneurial transformations. Management: The company's executive team remains stable under external pressure, and the employee shareholding platform enhances team cohesion. Product: The chairman and core management are proficient in industry technology and have established the company's R&D genes. Previously, Tianzhen had many technological breakthroughs and promoted the iterative upgrading of industry products. Customers: The company's customers cover world-renowned flooring brands and building materials retailers, and are tied to high-quality customer resources. Production capacity: The company promptly promoted overseas production capacity layout in Southeast Asia and the US. US PVC flooring is still more than 60% dependent on Chinese imports, and the company's overseas production capacity layout is expected to benefit from tariff expectations.
Looking forward to the future, we can expect upward space at the bottom under the resonance of PVC and the new RPET floor. Currently, the company is starting a “third” venture. On the one hand, under the endorsement of products, customers, management and capacity advantages, the PVC flooring business has been steadily restored. In 2024Q3, the company's revenue in a single quarter has been restored to 0.22 billion yuan, up 37.5% month-on-month and 856.5% year-on-year. On the other hand, in 2024, the company took the lead in breaking through the mass production process of new RPET flooring. RPET flooring has remarkable advantages such as environmental protection (recycled PET material), beautiful appearance (3D printing, simulation), and water resistance. Downstream brands and channel providers in the US are actively promoting it, and subsequent scale effects will drive down costs, which is expected to accelerate the increase in terminal penetration. As the first supplier in the industry that can be mass-produced, the company is expected to take advantage of the growth dividends of downstream RPET in the European and American markets and open up the performance ceiling.
Profit forecast and valuation: The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be -0.039, 0.183, and 0.44 billion yuan, respectively. The current market value (2024/11/28) is 3.9 billion yuan, corresponding to 2025-2026 PE 21 and 9 times, respectively. Considering that the company is still in a state of loss in 2024, we used a comparable PS valuation method to give Tianzhen Co., Ltd. 2.37 times PS in 2025, then the company's market value is 5.9 billion yuan, covering it for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The repair of the PVC flooring business fell short of expectations; the release of new RPET flooring production capacity fell short of expectations.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(0)
Reason For Report