中期分红100 亿，分红承诺高效落地，对应股息率已超4%。本次中期分红每10 股派发现金红利25.76 元（含税），合计100 亿元（含税），是公司20 年来首次中期现金分红，此前全年承诺70%的分红率底线高效兑现，按底线分红率测算，对应24 年股息率达4.15%左右，明显高于十年期国债收益率，亦高于保险资管存量负债端成本，对红利资金吸引力充足。此前10 月31 日公布《2024-2026 年度股东回报规划》到本次中期分红预案落地不足一月，同时公告12 月31 日将召开股东大会，审议通过分红相关议案，公司执行高效且诚意满满，亦展现了公司对业绩持续增长和优化股东结构的承诺，以实际行动强化市场信心。Matters:
The company announced the 2024 mid-term profit distribution plan and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 25.76 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. As of September 30, 2024, the total share capital of the company was 3,881,608,005 shares, which calculates the total proposed discovery dividend of 10 billion yuan (tax included). Furthermore, the company will hold a shareholders' meeting on December 31 to review the “2024-2026 Shareholder Return Plan” bill and the mid-term profit distribution plan announced earlier.
Commentary:
The mid-term dividend was 10 billion. The dividend promise was implemented efficiently, and the corresponding dividend ratio has already exceeded 4%. The current interim dividend revealed a cash dividend of 25.76 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, totaling 10 billion yuan (tax included). It is the company's first mid-term cash dividend in 20 years. Based on the bottom line dividend rate, the corresponding 24-year dividend rate reached about 4.15%, which is significantly higher than the yield on ten-year treasury bonds, and is also more attractive to dividend capital. Previously, the “2024-2026 Shareholder Return Plan” was announced on October 31, less than a month until the implementation of the current interim dividend plan. At the same time, it was announced that a shareholders' meeting will be held on December 31 to review and pass dividend-related proposals. The company's implementation is efficient and full of sincerity. It also shows the company's commitment to continuous growth in performance and optimization of the shareholder structure, and strengthens market confidence through practical actions.
Q4 The strategy is pragmatic and decisive to maintain a healthy balance between volume and price. In line with channel feedback, the company pragmatically adjusted its price strategy in the fourth quarter, rebates 29/79 yuan for Pu 5 969 yuan/1,019 yuan respectively, uniformly adjusted the channel payment cost to 940 yuan, and added rewards from the subsequent 1218 conference, etc., to guarantee dealer profits and strive to maintain the channel ecosystem, so the Pu 5 payment terminal went smoothly. However, due to factors such as October-November, which has historically been a critical stage for channel return of capital, compounded by factors such as online shock from Double Eleven and due shipments of money orders, etc., the price of Pu 5 dropped in stages to around 910 yuan. In response, the company announced control of goods in November (earlier than in previous years), and the lot price rebounded slightly. In fact, the overall volume and price balance of the company remained healthy under weak demand this year. The overall price performance was superior to that of peers.
The growth target for next year may be reduced to single digits, and there are still sufficient business tools to cross the cycle. Looking ahead to the annual planning schedule and next year, the company is currently actively promoting marketing work according to the annual target plan, but considering weak macroeconomic demand, we believe that pragmatically pursuing high quality is more important than blindly pursuing high speed, and that the 10% growth assessment set in the early year should be appropriately relaxed in line with external factors. Looking ahead to next year, we believe that in an uncertain environment, reducing the 25-year growth target to a single digit (slightly higher than the GDP growth rate) will be more realistic. The company still has a strong operating license that has broken through the cycle: first, 80% of the price increase is still reflected in the price of 969 yuan next year; second, Pu 5 is still expected to be slightly accurate; third, contributions from the promotion of classic Wuliangye, 68°/45 degree new products, non-standard cultural and creative products, and other price products (plans to launch a new cellar aged wine at waist price) and the old wine business can all contribute a certain amount of increase.
Investment advice: Stable operation, attractive dividend ratio, preferred value layout. Wuliangye's strong brand appeal at a price of 1,000 yuan is the driving force for the company to get through the cycle, and as marketing execution capabilities have improved markedly, we believe that the company's operations are stable. Moreover, as the company efficiently fulfills its early dividend promises, a dividend ratio of 4% or more is already highly attractive, providing sufficient safety for long-term value investors. Currently, there is limited room for investment in Wuliangye. Subsequent improvements in macroeconomic demand are expected to gradually be transmitted, and valuations are expected to be further repaired in an environment with abundant liquidity. In summary, we maintained the 24-26 EPS forecast of 8.54/9.15/9.92 yuan, maintained a target price of 215 yuan, and maintained a “strong” rating.
Risk warning: Demand continues to weaken, pricing falls short of expectations, and execution of business strategies falls short of expectations.
