业内人士看来，未来随着市场供需关系的逐步平衡，锂价有望企稳回升。供给侧产能释放的高峰期已经结束，需求侧，新能源汽车、储能等预计仍保持较高增速，碳酸锂将在2026年迎来价格的修复周期。Capacity utilization rate rebounds, and the inflection point of the lithium iron phosphate industry may be coming.
"The inflection point of the industry is coming earlier than expected."
Recently, the heat in the lithium iron phosphate industry has been rising. A leader of a top company stated that benefiting from the recovery of the power battery consumption market and strong demand in the energy storage field, the company has ample orders on hand, and there is a tight supply of some high-end lithium iron phosphate products.
Industry insiders believe that in the future, with the gradual balance of market supply and demand, lithium prices are expected to stabilize and rise. The peak period of supply-side capacity release has ended. On the demand side, new energy vehicles, energy storage, and other sectors are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Lithium carbonate is expected to see a price recovery cycle in 2026.
Data shows that the overall capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate is over 60% currently, while in the first half of this year, the capacity utilization rate was around 40%.
Industry insiders state that the lithium battery industry is still in a period of recovery, with homogeneous competition continuing. From the perspective of product technology iteration, the industry is in a transition from the third generation to the fourth generation. High-end lithium iron phosphate products are in short supply with strong price increase expectations.
It was reported by the Securities Times App that China International Capital Corporation released research reports stating that the lithium battery sector, after nearly 3 years of downturn, has gradually clarified its bottom at this current point. Looking forward to 2025, as industry chain prices stabilize gradually and supply-demand relations improve, each link is expected to see a fundamental turning point upwards; concurrently, a new round of technological cycle led by solid state batteries, is expected to accelerate the upgrade of the industry chain.
Lithium-related Hong Kong-listed companies:
Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696), Ganfeng Lithium (01772)
