Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in October, the output of industrial natural gas from large enterprises was 20.8 billion cubic meters, an 8.4% year-on-year increase, with a growth rate 1.6 percentage points faster than September; the daily output was 0.67 billion cubic meters. Natural gas imports were 10.54 million tons, a 20.7% year-on-year increase.

With the start of the winter heating season, natural gas demand enters the peak season.

Various regions like Shandong, Jiangsu, Jilin, Beijing, Shanghai, etc., have successively issued relevant notices and initiated a price linkage mechanism for gas.

Recently, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held a special meeting on ensuring winter heating and supply for central enterprises this winter and next spring. The meeting emphasized the need to increase coal mining efforts, purchase more thermal coal and natural gas, ensure additional installed capacity and grid connection, actively guide users to reduce peak load, and ensure safe winter heating supply.

According to reports from the Wise Finance app, a Goldman Sachs analyst stated that if natural gas supply in Europe tightens this winter, Asian LNG prices could rise to over $20 per million British thermal units.

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said: "Considering the vulnerability of Europe's natural gas supply, the lack of idle capacity, the reduced remaining trading volume of Russian natural gas through Ukraine, and the colder winter start this year than the average level." She added that the planned American LNG projects were also delayed, so Europe and Asia will receive less LNG next year than initially expected.

Cinda Securities pointed out that with the fall of upstream gas prices and the recovery growth of domestic natural gas consumption, city gas operations are expected to achieve stable gross profit margins and significant increase in sales volume.

Gas sector related Hong Kong stocks:

China Resources Gas (01193): Benefiting from profit structure adjustment, improved operating cash flow, slowed capital expenditure, the company's profits are steadily growing, free cash flow is improving, DPS is entering an upward channel, and dividend value is increasing.

China Gas Holdings (00384): The company's city gas projects smoothly increased prices, leading to higher price differentials; actively laying out overseas long-term resources to gain cost advantages.

Beijing Enterprises Holdings (00392): The company's revenue in the first half of the year was 45.99 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; shareholders' attributable net profit was 5.03 billion Hong Kong dollars; basic earnings per share was 3.99 Hong Kong dollars. In 2023, Beijing Enterprises' revenue was 82.31 billion yuan, with Beijing Gas revenue at 61.47 billion yuan, a 2.7% year-on-year increase, accounting for 74.7% of the total revenue. Beijing Gas's total natural gas sales volume on a pro forma basis in 2023 was 24 billion cubic meters. Due to factors like early heating supply, sales volume of Beijing pipeline gas increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 18.1 billion cubic meters. Out-of-town city gas sales volume 2 billion cubic meters, LNG distribution 2.3 billion cubic meters, LNG international trade 1.6 billion cubic meters.

ENN Energy (02688): Continuous growth in natural gas business, the company further expands its market share and customer base in the natural gas market. ENN Energy achieved steady growth in the natural gas business segment in the first half of 2024, with retail gas volume increasing by 4.5% year-on-year, reaching 12.71 billion cubic meters, indicating continuous market demand growth. Particularly significant is that commercial retail gas volume increased by 5.4% year-on-year, expanding its share to 75.2%.

Tian Lun Gas (01600): After institutional research on Tian Lun Gas, it is believed that the company's operational development is healthy: (1) Continuously increasing the number of residential gas users in cities; (2) Stably increasing gas sales volume; (3) Accelerating the improvement of the gas price mechanism.