Financial联社 November 29 (Editor Zhao Hao) Thursday local time (November 28), the Vienna-based Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on its official website that two meetings related to oil production plans will be postponed for four days.

The press release stated that the 57th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting, and the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) were scheduled to be held on December 1, 2024.

However, due to several ministers attending the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait City, OPEC has rescheduled the JMMC and ONOMM meetings to Thursday, December 5, 2024, to be held via video conference.

Source: OPEC official website

Most members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are also OPEC+ member countries. Previously, it was revealed by attending representatives that some ministerial delegations from member countries need to attend the Gulf Summit, causing scheduling conflicts.

The analysis pointed out that although the two meetings of OPEC+ were held online, their importance is very high, as they relate to the organization's oil production plans for the next year, which will have a huge impact on international oil prices and the revenues of member countries.

The day before, energy officials from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan held a trilateral conference call. The Saudi official media's press release emphasized the importance of maintaining global oil market stability and balance, praising the role and efforts of OPEC+ in this regard.

The press release specifically mentioned that the trilateral phone call emphasized the importance of cooperation and 'full commitment to adhere to mutual agreements' among OPEC+ member countries, including the voluntary production cuts agreed upon by 8 member countries, as well as the obligation for countries exceeding their quotas to fulfill compensatory production cuts.

Earlier reports indicated that Kazakhstan and Iraq have exceeded their oil production quotas several times, angering other OPEC+ members. The Kazakh Energy Minister emphasized the country's determination to diligently comply with the latest plan submitted to OPEC, voluntarily reduce production, and fulfill compensatory production cut obligations.

The day before, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi held a joint meeting in Baghdad with energy officials from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Amrita Sen, founder and director of energy research institution Energy Aspects, expects compliance to be a 'key focus' at the OPEC meeting.

Former OPEC staff member and Senior Vice President of Norway's research and consulting firm Rystad Energy, Jorge Leon, pointed out that Kazakhstan's position is somewhat 'tense,' as the country aims to increase oil production after developing the new Tengiz field.

Leon mentioned that Kazakhstan has repeatedly requested OPEC to reassess its production capacity to allow for an increase in oil production, stating that 'the problem is, when one country asks for a higher production baseline, all countries will ask for a higher baseline.'

Due to disagreements over production quotas, Angola announced its withdrawal from OPEC last year, stating 'if we stay in OPEC, Angola will be forced to cut production.' However, Leon believes that the likelihood of Kazakhstan withdrawing is slim, only that its position might be somewhat tense.

At the beginning of the month, the 8 OPEC+ oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, decided to extend the voluntary production cut measures of 2.2 million barrels per day, originally set to expire at the end of November, until the end of December. The meeting next Thursday may discuss whether to withdraw part of this reduction in the future.

This is also another major contradiction faced by OPEC+ - withdrawing part of the production cut, as increasing production might risk oversupply in the oil market. OPEC's mid-month report has already revised down the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025 for the fourth consecutive time.

Harry Tchilinguirian, the oil research director at Onyx Commodities Ltd., believes that OPEC is 'in a dilemma'. If the organization announces an increase in production, oil prices may continue to decline, affecting the revenue per barrel for member countries; on the other hand, not increasing production may result in the US and others seizing market share.

This month, the staunch fossil fuel enthusiast, Donald Trump, won the US presidential election. During his campaign, he called for the expansion of oil & gas production in the US, claiming that he could lower US energy prices by 50% or even more.

Even under stringent environmental constraints, the United States' oil production has reached a historical high during the Biden administration period.

Editor/Lambor