维持“增持”评级。考虑公司受益格局改善且效率持续提升，上调公司2024/25/26 年经调整归母净利润至179.46/207.99/244.45 亿元（+16/+19/+24）亿元人民币，给予25 年高于行业平均18xPE 估值，维持目标市值3,744 亿人民币，上调目标价至592 元港币。Introduction to this report:
The performance exceeded expectations, with stable revenue growth and excellent cost control under a high base, indicating that demand is still strong and profitability and shareholder returns have increased dramatically after the industry pattern has improved.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Considering the company's improved benefit pattern and continued improvement in efficiency, the company's adjusted net profit for 2024/25/26 was raised to 17.946/20.799/24.445 billion yuan (+16/+19/+24) billion yuan, giving a 25-year 18 xPE valuation higher than the industry average, maintaining a target market value of 374.4 billion yuan, and raising the target price to HK$592.
Performance summary: 24Q3 achieved revenue of 15.9 billion/ +16%, including: hotel reservation revenue +22%, transportation ticket booking +5%, group travel +17%, and business travel +11%. Net profit to mother: 6.8 billion/ +48%, 23Q3 was 4.6 billion, adjusted to mother was 6 billion +22.45%.
Demand for travel services is booming, and the control of marketing expenses has exceeded expectations. ① Revenue was in line with expectations (expected 11-16%, actual 16%), and performance exceeded expectations (adj EBITDA 5.3-5.5bn, actual 5.7bn). ② The growth rate of hotel, transportation, and business travel revenue is at the upper limit of the guide this season, but the revenue growth rate of the group travel business is lower than expected (expected 18-23% vs. actual +17%). Considering that the 23Q3 base is already very high, the performance of transportation ticketing and hotel reservations this season shows that demand for travel and services is still very strong. ③ The main sources of performance exceeding expectations are income tax expenses and sales expenses ratio (expected 23%, actual 21%): Income tax expenses fluctuate greatly from quarter to quarter, and sales expenses related to fluctuations in the performance of subsidiaries at different tax rates are mainly related to the company's domestic and overseas marketing investment pace.
Departure is an important support for growth, and profits continue to be released as the beneficiary pattern improves. ① The company expects the 242Q4 revenue growth rate to increase month-on-month (+17 to 22%), and hotels and transportation are all accelerating month-on-month. The core reason is the starting base for 23Q4, as well as outbound and overseas business. ② However, it is expected that 24Q4 will increase marketing and marketing, which will be reflected in the sales expense ratio, and sales expenses will mainly be used to expand overseas business. ③ For Ctrip, short-term outbound and medium-term overseas business expansion will be the core driving force for Ctrip's revenue side growth. Therefore, we believe that relevant marketing campaigns will bring long-term share growth and profit returns to the growth of overseas business scale. ④ Currently, the platform has generally entered a medium- to low-income growth rate, but profits are released through fee rate control to increase shareholder returns. The certainty of Ctrip's profit release comes from the stability of the pattern.
Risk warning: Economic fluctuations affect domestic business travel demand. Competition in the industry intensified due to the reinvestment of some giants, and the growth rate slowed after the outbound travel base returned to normal.
