It's been a mediocre week for Leslie's, Inc. (NASDAQ:LESL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to US$2.48 in the week since its latest annual results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.13 per share on revenues of US$1.3b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Leslie's from eleven analysts is for revenues of US$1.36b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Leslie's forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.065 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$3.36, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Leslie's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.00 and the most bearish at US$2.25 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Leslie's shareholders.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Leslie's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Leslie's.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Leslie's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Leslie's (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
