Diversification is a key tool for dealing with stock price volatility. Of course, the aim of the game is to pick stocks that do better than an index fund. One such company is Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO), which saw its share price increase 38% in the last year, slightly above the market return of around 32% (not including dividends). It is also impressive that the stock is up 34% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Altria Group was able to grow EPS by 20% in the last twelve months. This EPS growth is significantly lower than the 38% increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
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We know that Altria Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Altria Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Altria Group, it has a TSR of 51% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Altria Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 51% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 12% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Altria Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
Of course Altria Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.