2024Q3 公司存量房及新房业务交易额均实现同比上涨，其中，新房业务总交易额同比上涨18%，表现显著优于上半年表现-32.4%及百强房企同期表现-28.6%。公司“一体三翼”策略积极推进，“三翼”业务家居家装、房屋租赁、新兴业务及其他收入合计同比增长54.3%，占净收入总额比例提升至38.3%，相比2023 年同比提升6.8 个百分点，延续了2024H1 的增长势头。我们看好公司家装、租赁及新兴业务作为 “第二曲线”的业绩增长潜力，未来有望带动公司业绩再度改善。Event: November 21, 2024 The company announced results for the third quarter of 2024.
Key investment points
Q3 New Housing GTV bucked the trend and increased year on year. The “second curve” continued the growth trend 2024Q1-3. The company's net revenue was 62.3 billion yuan, +8.3% year over year, adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, -27.4% year on year; gross profit was 15.8 billion yuan, -4.8% year on year; gross margin was 25.3%, -3.5 pct year on year. Looking at a single quarter, 2024Q3's total transaction volume was 736.8 billion yuan, +12.5% year over year; net revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, +26.8% year over year; adjusted net profit was 1.78 billion yuan, -17.5% year over year; and gross profit margin was 22.7%, -4.7 pct year on year. By business, the revenue from the stock housing business was 6.2 billion yuan, which was basically the same as 6.3 billion yuan in the same period in 2023, with a transaction amount of 477.8 billion yuan, +8.8%; the revenue from the new housing business was 7.7 billion yuan, +30.9%, and the transaction volume was 227.6 billion yuan, +18.4% year on year; home improvement business revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, +32.6% year on year; housing Revenue from leasing business was 3.9 billion yuan, +118.4% year over year, and total transaction volume was 27.3 billion yuan, +31.9% year over year.
The transaction volume of 2024Q3's housing stock and new housing business both achieved year-on-year increases. Among them, the total transaction volume of the new housing business rose 18% year on year, which was significantly superior to the performance of -32.4% in the first half of the year and -28.6% of the top 100 housing companies during the same period. The company's “integrated tri-wing” strategy was actively promoted. The total revenue of the “tri-wing” business, home improvement, housing leasing, emerging businesses and other businesses increased 54.3% year on year, accounting for 38.3% of total net revenue, up 6.8 percentage points year on year compared to 2023, continuing the growth trend of 2024H1. We are optimistic about the performance growth potential of the company's home improvement, leasing and emerging businesses as the “second curve”, which is expected to drive the company's performance to improve again in the future.
Rates remain optimized, and the number of stores and agents has increased
2024Q3's operating expenses are 4.4 billion yuan, and the rate is 19.5%, which is 2.2 pct lower than at the end of 2023, and the company's rate maintains an optimized pace. By the end of September 2024, the number of company stores was 0.0482 million, +12.1% year over year, of which the number of active stores was 0.0469 million, +14.6% year over year; the number of agents was 0.476 million, +11% year over year, of which the number of active agents was 0.423 million, +6.1% year over year. The 2024Q3 moving average monthly active users was 46.2 million, or -6.1% YoY.
The pace of market repair is maintained, and the flexibility of Q4 performance is worth paying attention to
According to Kerry statistics, the transaction area of new housing in 30 key cities in October 2024 was 14.05 million square meters in a single month, up 44% from the previous month, the same as the previous year; the second-hand housing transaction area in 18 key cities was 9.71 million square meters, an increase of 25% over the previous year, and an increase of 18% over the previous year. From November 1 to 20, the average daily transaction area of new housing in 13 core cities and second-hand housing transaction area in 11 core cities increased by 10% and 21%, respectively, compared with October, and 62% and 47%, respectively, from September. Furthermore, according to second-hand housing price data from the Iceberg Index, the month-on-month rolling month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in key 50 cities narrowed for 3 consecutive weeks until November 24, maintaining a good price recovery trend. On November 13, the Ministry of Finance and three other ministries issued a new tax policy for housing transactions to increase tax incentives in the transaction process. From November 18 to 19, the four first-tier cities of Guangshang, Guangshen and Shenzhen successively abolished general housing standards. We believe this will help reduce residents' housing purchase and sale costs again. After the implementation of the policy on December 1, we expect it to have an obvious positive impact on second-hand housing transactions. In terms of the new housing market, December is the traditional impulse season for housing enterprises. We believe that in December, developers' sales volume is expected to increase, and promotions will be stepped up in line with more promotions. Therefore, we believe that the area of new housing transactions in key cities maintained positive month-on-month growth in December. Judging from the new and second-hand housing market trends in key cities, we believe that Shell's new and second-hand housing GTV and revenue growth in the fourth quarter may exceed expectations.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The current pace of market repair continues, and we are optimistic about the company's Q4 performance growth potential. Furthermore, the company's “second curve” home improvement and leasing business model is gradually maturing, and we are optimistic about the company's potential for continued growth in performance after entering a new stage of development. We expect the company's EPS to be 2.22 yuan/share in 2024, maintaining a “buy” rating (all prices are in RMB, close to the December average exchange rate, 1 HKD = RMB 0.911).
Risk warning: Second-hand housing repairs fall short of expectations; demand repair is weakening.
