The return of "TINA".

In a recent outlook report, major Wall Street banks generally expect that US stocks will maintain a leading roi level in 2025, with the S&P and other large cap stock indices expected to achieve an increase of over 25% for the second consecutive year.

Analysts say that despite the high valuations of leading companies in the industry and a series of policy combinations from the Trump administration still bringing uncertainty to the stock market, strong economic growth and the ai revolution are likely to continue supporting the rise of the stock market.

Albert Edwards, a strategist from Societe Generale, stated that "TINA" is about to return, meaning "There Is No Alternative to owning equities."

Lakos-Bujas from jpmorgan stated in the report:

"Due to policy changes brought about by the government transition in 2025, the theory of American exceptionalism may face turmoil and increased volatility, but opportunities may outweigh the risks."

Although valuations are high, earnings expectations are also high.

Currently, usa stocks remain the most expensive in the world. FactSet data shows that usa market cap now accounts for over 50% of the global stock market value, the highest level since the end of 2001.

Meanwhile, most bullish analysts on Wall Street believe that strong profitability may continue to drive up stock prices, justifying the recent exponential valuation expansion.

The positive outlook for usa economic growth also supports this argument. The latest data shows that, driven by robust consumer spending, usa GDP growth rate for the third quarter has reached 2.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, a speed higher than that of other developed markets.

The ubs group team stated that compared to households abroad, usa households have a larger allocation of net worth in stocks, which helps amplify the 'wealth effect' on the economy during market uptrends.

The bank added that if global economic growth slows down, the attractiveness of usa stocks to foreign capital may actually increase further, and it is expected to continue benefiting from it.

Considering various factors, despite being expensive, usa stocks may still become the 'preferred choice' in investors' hearts.

David Kelly's team, chief global strategist at jpmorgan asset management, stated that despite having to admit the low valuations and attractiveness of overseas markets, there is still no 'substitute' for usa stocks:

'The lack of quality substitutes for usa stocks remains a reality.'

Technology stocks remain the "profit fulcrum".

Analysts believe that technology stocks will continue to be the main profit driver in the USA stock market.

Barclays USA stock strategist Venu Krishna told MarketWatch that the profit fulcrum still mainly comes from technology giants and is expanding.

"The profit expectations for the USA stock market are quite healthy. The profitability fulcrum remains concentrated in large technology companies, but directionally, other parts of the market are moving in the right direction, although at a much slower pace than expected."

Regarding the recent surge of interest in ai, Krishna believes that although there is still a great deal of uncertainty around the return on investment for companies in ai, over time, the productivity of ai technology will gradually increase, helping to boost corporate profits.

Some analysts also believe that Trump's 2.0 inclination towards corporate tax cuts and deregulation could further improve corporate profits while boosting the economy through more deficit spending.

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Editor/rice