Gold prices remained stable on Thursday (November 28), with spot gold currently trading around $2636.83 per ounce, as investors digest a series of economic data from the previous trading day and assess the potential for a tariffs war triggered by the policies of the newly elected president of the usa, Trump.

In terms of fundamentals

Main bearish factors

A series of economic data was released on Wednesday, slightly tilting bearish for gold prices. The focus was on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. This index rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, meeting expectations.

In addition, according to the latest estimates released on Wednesday, the usa's third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) annualized growth rate was revised to 2.8%, which is unchanged from the initial value, but consumer spending was slightly downgraded.

Moreover, the number of initial jobless claims in the usa decreased by 2,000, adjusted for seasonal factors, to 213,000, the lowest level since April. Economists had previously predicted a claimant count of 216,000.

However, for the week ending November 16, the number of continued jobless claims increased by 9,000, seasonally adjusted to 1.907 million, the highest level since November 2021. This has somewhat weakened the bearish and bullish implications of the data.

The Federal Reserve is striving to bring the inflation rate back to the 2% target, and with the possibility of increased tariffs after the Trump administration took office, this may constrain the Fed's ability to implement rate cuts next year.

The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust GLD reported that its holdings declined by 0.10% on Wednesday, to 878.55 tons.

Mainly bullish.

Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum warned that if Trump implements his proposal for a comprehensive 25% tariff, Mexico will take retaliatory action. The Mexican government warned that this move could kill 0.4 million American jobs and push up consumer prices in the usa.

During periods of economic or geopolitical instability, including trade wars, gold is often seen as a safe-haven investment.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the market currently views the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December to be 66%, up from 53% on Monday.

The warming expectation for the Fed's rate cut in December and trade concerns are also supporting gold prices.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 50 basis points as expected, while the Bank of south korea unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leaning towards supporting gold prices.

In terms of geopolitical situation.

Israel and Lebanon have reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing risk aversion, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, still supporting gold prices. The variable lies in the compliance with the Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement; additionally, candidates for the usa national security advisor are weighing efforts to push for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Overall market short-term sentiment is currently slightly bullish, while medium to long-term expectations for global central bank interest rate cuts, uncertainty surrounding Trump policies, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict also tend to support gold prices, previously attracting risk-averse bids and buy-on-dips supporting gold prices.

Holiday.

Due to the usa market being closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving holiday, trading is expected to be relatively light compared to previous years. This year is expected to be no exception.

Historically, the amplitude on Thanksgiving Day tends to drop below the previous day, with most having only half the amplitude, at most 80%.

On Wednesday, gold prices fluctuated about 32 dollars, so today's maximum possible fluctuation is around 26 dollars. If 2620 is the intraday low, then today's high should not exceed 2646.83; if 2638.30 is the high for today, then today's low should not be lower than 2612.30.

technical aspects

Daily level: fluctuating, moving averages intertwined, MACD sticking together, KDJ forming a dead cross. Previously, the gold price rebound was suppressed by the 55-day moving average and the 5-day moving average. Before breaking above the 55-day moving average of 2659.92, the market slightly leans towards bearish.

4-hour level: fluctuating; moving averages suppress the gold price, KDJ forms a dead cross, MACD signal is weak but the green bars are shrinking, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening. Moreover, the previous gold price pullback found support near the 61.8% retracement level of the rise from 2536 to 2721. Currently, the gold price is also supported by the upward trendline, and the possibility of the gold price rising again towards 2721 cannot be ruled out.

The resistance of the 100-day and multiple cycle moving averages is currently around 2638.90, and the resistance of the 21-day moving average is currently around 2643.77. If this resistance can be broken, there is hope to rise towards the 200-day moving average of 2681.48. The gain or loss of this position can serve as a reference for medium-term trends.

The support of the upward trendline is currently around 2625. If this support is unexpectedly lost, the gold price may open a short-term downward channel.

Resistance: 2638.90; 2643.77; 2650.00; 2659.92; 2681.48;

Support: 2625.59; 2616.76; 2610.78; 2600.00; 2580.31;

Conclusion: The short-term outlook is biased towards choppy running, pay attention to the breakout situation in the 2625-2644 area.