资金成本管控持续强化，资产负债结构不断优化。据Wind，美联储自2022 年3 月开启加息周期至2024 年9 月，累计加息幅度为525 基点。公司通过跨币种融资、管控有息负债规模、提高资金利用效率，上半年公司有息负债平均成本控制在3.5%，较2023 全年的3.7%进一步降低。上半年公司新增多笔固定利率的人民币债券和贷款，与经营者租赁资产的匹配度进一步上升，利率风险敞口进一步下降。2024 年9 月美联储开启新一轮降息周期，公司有息负债成本有望进一步下降。此外公司的融资租赁资产和银行贷款负债主要为浮动计息，可冲抵美元利率波动影响。Key points of investment:
Event: China Ship Leasing announced its 2024 semi-annual results. 2024H1 achieved operating income of HK$1.966 billion, up 13% year on year, and net profit to mother of HK$1.327 billion, up 22% year over year. As of June 30, 2024, the company's total assets reached HK$43.788 billion, an increase of 7% over the previous year. The performance was in line with expectations.
The fleet structure has been further optimized, and the asset value continues to rise during the shipbuilding boom cycle: according to the company's announcement, as of June 30, 2024, the total size of the company's fleet reached 148 ships, 125 ships in operation, and 23 ships under construction. In terms of fleet structure, the average age of the company's operating vessels is 3.73 years, and the average remaining lease period for single and long-term lease projects is 8.79 years. In the first half of the year, 10 new ships were ordered, and the ship age structure is excellent. According to Clarkson, by the end of October 2024, the new shipbuilding price index reached 189.64 points, up 6.32% from the beginning of the year, and the used ship price index reached 178.34 points, up 19.63% from the beginning of the year. The company's stock fleet is becoming more valuable and younger, the fleet structure has been further optimized, and the asset value continues to rise due to the upward trend in shipbuilding.
Capital cost control continues to be strengthened, and the balance and liability structure is continuously optimized. According to Wind, the Federal Reserve began the interest rate hike cycle in March 2022 to September 2024, and the cumulative rate hike was 525 basis points. Through cross-currency financing, controlling the size of interest-bearing debt, and improving capital utilization efficiency, the average cost of the company's interest-bearing debt was controlled at 3.5% in the first half of the year, which was further reduced from 3.7% for the full year of 2023. In the first half of the year, the company added a number of fixed interest RMB bonds and loans. The degree of compatibility with the operator's leased assets further increased, and interest rate risk exposure declined further. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve began a new cycle of interest rate cuts, and the cost of the company's interest-bearing debt is expected to drop further. Furthermore, the company's financial leasing assets and bank loan liabilities mainly accrue interest on a floating basis, which can offset fluctuations in US dollar interest rates.
Pay attention to shareholder returns and build a margin of safety with a high dividend ratio. The company paid an interim dividend of HK$0.03 per share for the year of 2023 and HK$0.12 per share for the full year, with a dividend distribution rate of 38.8%. The company plans to pay a mid-year dividend of HK$0.03 per share in the first half of 2024. The mid-year dividend per share is the same as in 2023. If the company's dividend rate in 2024 is 38.8% in line with 2023. Combined with profit forecasts, the company's dividend rate in 2024 can reach about 8.1%.
Returning to Hong Kong Stock Connect, improving liquidity accelerates the return of value. The company was once again included in the Hang Seng Index and Hong Kong Stock Connect in August 2024. The adjustments officially came into effect in September 2024. After being included again, liquidity increased, compounded by an upward trend in the shipping cycle, and value return is expected to accelerate.
Maintaining the “Buy” rating, downgraded the 2024-2025 profit forecast, and added the 2026 profit forecast. Considering the recovery in the oil and gas transportation boom this year, the central decline in oil transportation and LNG transportation freight rates, the company's operating and leasing business revenue declined, the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 was lowered, and the profit forecast for 2026 was added. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be HK$2.1/2.3/2.5 billion (previously estimated at HK$2.5/3 billion for 2024-2025), corresponding PE 4.8/4.4/4.1 times, and PB of 0.71/0.65/0.59 times. Considering the improvement in shipbuilding, the company's long-term financing costs are locked, and the ROE center is expected to be maintained, compounded by a higher dividend rate safety margin. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: shipping cycle boom falls short of expectations; ship asset prices fall; foreign exchange rate fluctuations; financial leasers default.
