The C-side is expected to resume more than double-digit growth, mainly due to optimization of operational efficiency under strategic rationalization. In addition, offline expansion and faster launch of new products are also contributing. Inventory was cleaned up in the first half of the year, and Q4 Double Eleven accelerated volume growth. Q4 Double Eleven accelerated volume. The first reason behind the improvement was strategic rationalization, which was limited to pasta products in the past, focusing on fixed customer groups such as exquisite nursing mothers and urban white-collar workers, focusing on Western-style products, clean label products, and convenient meals. At the same time, the management team was successfully replaced in March, and employee stock ownership plans were introduced simultaneously. Second, marketing operations were more targeted and the cost efficiency ratio was further improved., the company accelerates medium and large KA, convenience stores, and Coverage of community group purchases, etc., is expected to increase by more than 50% throughout the year, accounting for a share of revenue from 10% + to 20%. In addition, Imitation not only continues to add rich flavors and complement the price range, such as the introduction of high-end crab and Angus beef pasta flavors, and gradually stabilizes the price market after appropriate price reductions, while Kitchen Affin undertakes the promotion function of medium- to low-price pasta and accelerates the launch of new products. For example, in September, a new pasta with a price of 10 yuan, suitable for sale in convenience stores, and grilled sausage products made from pure black pork are also currently being released. Good progress has been made, and further contributions are expected in the future incremental.
B-side margins have improved steadily. Future core customers will be driven by growth, while non-catering customer expansion and demand recovery will provide a source of flexibility. Under pressure on catering demand, the B side of the company still achieved steady double-digit growth in the first three quarters. Under the low base, some policy strength, and Spring Festival preparations, demand has stabilized since the fourth quarter. Looking forward to the future, the company's core growth driver. On the one hand, under the wave of restaurant chains, the company controlled high-quality customers in the industry, such as Domino, McDonald's, Tustin and Yum themselves, maintained a relatively rapid expansion. On the other hand, the company increased its binding with customers to achieve a share increase in the old customer system by continuously expanding categories. Current offline retail The wave of efficiency restructuring attaches great importance to and strengthens cooperation with new retail KAs such as Sam, Hema, and Fat Donglai to provide them with comprehensive customized food solutions. At the same time, if countercyclical policies are implemented in the coming year, service consumption represented by catering may usher in improvements. As a leader in customized meal preparation, the company is expected to fully benefit from the potential opportunities for improving downstream demand.
Profit pressure has been better released, and profits are expected to improve moderately in the future as new acceleration, C-side loss reduction, and capacity structure optimization. The company's profits were under pressure during the year. First, the C-side cleaning up inventory at the beginning of the year caused a certain drag. Second, B-side baking lost scale effects because production capacity was still climbing; third, there was compensation for demolition last year, and the share of minority shareholders increased due to capital increases and stock expansion of subsidiaries this year. Looking ahead to next year, along with the recovery of catering, the company is speeding up the launch of high-margin new products. Combined with the gradual reduction in losses in the baking business, the impact of one-time disruptions such as C-side depreciation, eviction compensation, and an increase in minority shareholders' share comes to an end. As the company's operating efficiency continues to be consolidated, the overall profit side is expected to achieve moderate improvements.
Investment advice: The C-side is expected to reverse, and the B-side is more flexible, reaffirming the “strong push” rating. After the company's C-side strategy has been rationalized, the business is in the process of marginal improvement. Subsequent new products and channels are expected to provide further incremental growth. B-side growth is currently guaranteed, and if the restaurant recovers in the coming year, it is expected to provide greater flexibility. Considering the company's current operating improvements, we raised the 24-26 EPS forecast to 0.59/0.73/0.87 yuan (the original forecast was 0.57/0.63/0.73 yuan). The current stock price corresponds to PE 25/20/17 times, giving a target price of 18.2 yuan, which corresponds to 25 times PE in 25 years, and reaffirms the “strong push” rating.
Risk factors: increased competition in the C-side market, food and beverage recovery falling short of expectations, food safety issues, etc.