中信证券预计美团第三季度整体收入将达到924亿元，同比增长20.8%，经营利润预计为115亿元，同比大幅增长243.5%。交银国际的预测则显示，美团总收入同比增长21%，净利润增长98%至114亿元，净利润率达到12.3%。国海证券也预计，美团第三季度实现总营收921亿元，同比增长20.5%，核心本地商业营收为687亿元，同比增长19%。① What factors are driving the growth of Meituan's performance in the third quarter? ② How is the expected performance of the takeout business?
According to the Financial Association on November 28 (Editor: Hu Jiarong), Meituan-W (03690.HK) will announce the financial data for the third quarter of 2024 on November 29. According to the expectations of some brokerages, Meituan is expected to show strong growth momentum in its core business in the third quarter of 2024, especially in instant delivery and in-store business.
Revenue and profit growth.
Citic Sec expects Meituan's overall revenue in the third quarter to reach 92.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, with operating profit expected to be 11.5 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 243.5%. Bocom Intl's forecast shows that Meituan's total revenue will grow year-on-year by 21%, and net income will increase by 98% to 11.4 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 12.3%. Sealand also predicts that Meituan will achieve total revenue of 92.1 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with core local business revenue of 68.7 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year.
Instant delivery and in-store business.
Citic Sec expects instant delivery business revenue to reach 8.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%; in-store business revenue is expected to be 5.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. Sealand predicts that instant delivery business revenue will grow year-on-year by 18%, and profit will increase by 36%; in-store dining and travel business revenue will grow by 20%, and profit will increase by 32%, with a profit margin of 35%.
Takeout business.
Citic Sec expects steady growth in takeout order volume, with a narrowing decline in AOV (average order value); flash purchase business continues to see rapid growth in order volume, and UE (unit economic efficiency) continues to improve. Sealand expects takeout business revenue to increase year-on-year by 14.6% to 45.9 billion yuan, with GTV (gross transaction value) growing by 11% year-on-year, and operating profit margin improving to 17.8%, with takeout order volume expected to increase by 12% year-on-year to 6.12 billion orders.
Foreign institutions are bullish on Meituan's performance in the third quarter.
Some foreign institutions also hold an optimistic view on Meituan's third-quarter performance. Citigroup pointed out that Meituan's non-IFRS adjusted EBITDA and adjusted profit in the third quarter may exceed market expectations, benefiting from the seasonal support of the summer tourism and in-store business, and it is expected that dining delivery revenue will meet market expectations.
Nomura noted that Meituan's dining delivery revenue grew by 18% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by a 19% year-on-year increase in order volume. Although the average amount per order decreased by 3% year-on-year, in-store revenue increased by 34% year-on-year, and it is expected that the non-IFRS adjusted profit margin will decrease by 16 percentage points year-on-year to 33%, influenced by promotional activities.
