According to the latest data from the first commercial vehicle network, in October 2024, a total of 8,247 new energy heavy trucks were sold in the domestic market (Note: the data in this article is based on the actual sales according to compulsory insurance, excluding exports and military vehicles, the same below), which is a 5% increase compared to September and also continues to grow year-on-year, with a growth rate of 141%. In October, the sales of pure electric heavy trucks (including battery swapping and charging heavy trucks) reached 7,657 units, accounting for 92.85%, a decline from last month's 96.02%.

Among them, 2,687 battery-swapping heavy trucks were sold, showing a 3% growth month-on-month and also continuing to achieve year-on-year growth, with an increase of 99%, which is a slight narrowing from last month’s growth of +144%, achieving a "10 consecutive increases".

Since 2024, the monthly penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has rapidly grown from single digits to double digits, breaking through the 10% turning point and迎来趋势性放量.

China International Capital Corporation believes that the growth potential of the new energy heavy truck industry is sustainable and that new opportunities and challenges will arise in terms of competitive landscape, industrial ecosystem, and profit model. Compulsory insurance shows that the number of new energy heavy truck registrations in 10M24 increased by 143% year-on-year to 0.057 million units, with a penetration rate of 11.9%.

China International Capital Corporation determines that, driven by economic advantages and supporting policies, the domestic penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is expected to break through the 10% critical point in 2024, likely entering a steep phase of S-shaped growth for accelerated development. Looking forward, by combining segmented models and typical cities, we estimate that the mid-term penetration ceiling for new energy heavy trucks could reach 26.5%.

China International Capital Corporation expects that new energy heavy trucks will first be applied in scenarios such as short-distance transportation, short-haul transportation, and closed parks like ports and mining areas. They will first penetrate regions with strong industrial demand and ample policy support, establish a business model, and educate users, before being comprehensively promoted.

Economies of scale may lead to a profit turning point, and the ecosystem + going global will become growth points. China International Capital Corporation believes that income is affected by volume and price as well as the supply and demand, while production costs are influenced by raw material costs, the self-manufacturing ratio of core components, and capacity utilization.

Currently, new energy heavy trucks generally have a low gross margin or are even slightly unprofitable. The industry's profit turning point is undergoing a shift from the cost side to the price side. Looking ahead, the industry is expected to achieve steady growth in gross margin through continuous volume increase and stable prices.

China International Capital Corporation is bullish on the increasing diversity of value across the entire industry chain under the electric and intelligent transformation. Vehicle manufacturers are expected to connect the new energy heavy truck ecosystem to create hardware and software value. There are also expectations that under the global low-carbon transition, new energy heavy trucks from China will achieve overseas market growth through well-established supply chain advantages and abundant products and technical reserves.

Heavy truck related enterprises:

Weichai Power (02338), Sinotruk (03808)