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招商积余(001914)公司深度报告:央企物管旗舰规模壮大 降本增效助力盈利修复

Investment Savings (001914) Company In-depth Report: Central Enterprise Property Management Flagships Grow in Scale, Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency to Help Repair Profits

Open Source Securities ·  Nov 27, 2024 12:12

The scale of property management continues to expand, and the investment balance of the “buy” rating depends on the China Merchants Group to maintain the investment balance of the “buy” rating. The market share and layout of related parties have increased steadily, and the non-residential track is expanding steadily, and adhering to the “big property management” and “big asset management” strategies. Along with asset restructuring and a series of cost reduction and efficiency measures, there is a clear upward trend at the bottom of profitability, and future performance is expected to continue to be released. We added a profit forecast. The net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.844, 0.92, and 1.083 billion yuan respectively, EPS 0.80, 0.87, and 1.02 yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 13.6, 12.5, and 10.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

The property management business is diversified, leading the non-residential market

The company's management scale has grown steadily in recent years. As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company's managed area was 0.385 billion square meters, up 16.5% year on year; of these, the area managed by third parties increased 17.1% year on year, accounting for 67%; the non-residential business area increased 26.8% year on year, accounting for 66%, the highest for leading housing enterprises. The scale of new contracts signed by the company continued to grow. In the first half of the year, 1.74 billion yuan was signed, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year, accounting for 92%; the amount of new non-residential contracts signed was 1.622 billion yuan, accounting for 86%; and the annual contract amount of new contracts signed from China Merchants Shekou reached 0.153 billion yuan. The company's 2024H1 property management revenue was 6.36 billion yuan, up 15.9% year on year; gross profit margin was 11.0%, up 0.4 pct year on year.

Value-added business continues to grow, and the scale of commercial operations is increasing

Platform value-added services: There are five major lines around customer life and office needs. 2024H1 achieved revenue of 0.256 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0% year on year; gross profit margin of 9.9%, up 8.5% from 2023. Professional value-added business: Eight major business lines have been set up. Affected by developers' value-added services and service quality improvements, the first half of 2024 achieved revenue of 0.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; the gross profit margin was 11.1%, down 6.7 pcts from the full year of 2023.

Asset management business: 3.97 million square meters of commercial area under management, total leasable area of 0.469 million square meters, occupancy rate 94%, revenue of 0.289 billion yuan in the first half of the year, up 2.6% year on year, and gross margin increased 2.0pct to 52.7% over the full year of 2023.

The results of reducing costs and improving efficiency are remarkable, and the pressure on interest-bearing debt continues to drop

The company reduced the 2024H1 management rate to 1.9% through measures such as technology replacement, collection cost reduction, project management, and administrative cost reduction, etc., and remained at the lowest level in the industry. By the end of the first half of 2024, the company's balance ratio was 45.3%, and the total interest-bearing debt was 1.43 billion yuan, all the lowest values in the past five years. Among them, bank loans accounted for 83%, and the 2024H1 financial rate fell to 0.4%. As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company's cash on hand was 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%.

Risk warning: Third-party project expansion is slowing down, related companies' operations fall short of expectations, and real estate sales are declining.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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