2020, the year of "Little Breaking Station".

Students are experiencing the "most homey winter vacation" of their lives, which has ushered in a new opportunity for Bilibili (hereinafter referred to as Bilibili Inc.).

"apart from eating and sleeping, I just browse Bilibili Inc.," Hsiao Jung, a sophomore who lives in Guiyang, told Zhou Tian Caijing. "maybe it's because of the epidemic, and many UP that haven't been updated for thousands of years have changed." Data show that a total of 100000 videos were uploaded by 63000 UP hosts on site B during the epidemic.

Because Bilibili Inc. almost monopolizes the PUGC track of the video battlefield, you will find thatAlmost all of the most popular videos circulated throughout the network during the epidemic were written by Bilibili Inc..

For example, after the closure of Wuhan, the live Vlog released by Lin Chen, the master of UP, let people know the real situation in Wuhan, and the video spread quickly, even affecting the overseas Chinese community.

On February 2, the pneumonia popular science video "everything about COVID-19" produced by UP's main "paper clip PaperClip" was broadcast more than 150 million times throughout the network, bringing fans up by 4.7 million in various channels, and the new programmer UP's main "Ele Lab" used simulation program modeling to rationally and intuitively show "why you can't go out yet". It spread throughout the network and was forwarded by a number of authoritative official media at the same time.

Looking at the superposition of many factors, it directly boosted Bilibili Inc. 's capital market performance. Station B rose as much as 13.24% on February 6, leading Chinese stocks to rise and hit an all-time high in intraday trading. Based on the closing price of US $24.99 on February 7, Bilibili Inc. has a total market capitalization of US $8.15 billion. Chen Rui's market capitalization target of 10 billion is just around the corner.

"Little broken Station", is it really going to take off?

01 starting from the millions of fans of the "half-Buddha fairy" Bilibili Inc.

"Thank you for your support. 100W focus has been achieved in only 50 days. "

Last year, by exposing the "half-Buddha fairy" (Bilibili Inc. ID: hard-core half-Buddha fairy, hereinafter referred to as "half-Buddha"), which emerged as a new force in the official account circle, it was posted on Bilibili Inc. on the evening of February 8.

In order to thank his fans, Chen Rui, chairman of 10 iPad Mini,B stations, also left a message to congratulate him.

The work of "half Buddha" in Bilibili Inc. continues his long-standing personal style-solving scams that ordinary people can't see in a humorous tone, coupled with emojis loved by young people.

Apart from the first video of life tested in the water, from December 24 to February 9, half Buddha released a total of 13 original content videos in Bilibili Inc.. At present, the most broadcast video is the video about milk tea joining the scam released on January 4, with 4.298 million views, and the video has also reached the first place in the list of the whole station. Also popular are works on wildlife and declassified consumerism.

From the perspective of video production alone, the work of "semi-Buddha" can even be said to be somewhat "rough"-there is no transition effect or animation to assist in content understanding, and most of the time he relies on his self-made memes to complete the bottom of the picture and tell it at the same time, but this does not prevent him from gaining fans quickly.

It is not easy to achieve millions of fans in Bilibili Inc..

As of February 10, the total number of fans of "half Buddha" (112.1 W) has been ranked 220th among all UP hosts of Bilibili Inc., according to the BiliOB Observer website.

Bilibili Inc. 19Q3 financial data show that its average monthly active UP in the third quarter is 1.1 million, even if it is a conservative estimate, with millions of followers, it means that it has squeezed into the top 3/10000 of Bilibili Inc. UP, which can be called "ranking in the fairy class".

Personal struggle is inseparable from the process of history. Behind the growth miracle of the reproduction of "half Buddha", Bilibili Inc. is getting farther and farther away from the label of "two dimensions", and the content is more in line with the tastes of the public, showing a trend of diversification.

Yes, Bilibili Inc. is still buying new fans and doing comic book business, but "there is no inner taste".

Among the top 2019 UP owners selected by Bilibili Inc., the living area became the absolute winner with 34 people on the list. As a contrast, if UP, the game area with the largest number of potential audiences and the lowest threshold for content production in ACG, is removed, the "top 2019 UP owners" in the fields of animation, dance and music add up to only 13 people, less than half of the living area.

If the living area UP wins a complete victory, it can also be explained by the downward movement of the threshold of the mobile Vlog, leading to a supply explosion. Then the next data will more intuitively show Bilibili Inc. 's content diversity trend, as well as traffic growth.

Bilibili Inc. UP master "Jannchie see Qi" is a programmer who monitors Bilibili Inc. UP master data through crawlers and uploads the monitored data into visual videos of different themes.

Sunday Finance intercepted data from two videos uploaded by the producer about "the fastest growing UP": the UP main TOP20 with the fastest fan growth in the seven-day retrograde period on February 9 this year, and the TOP20 in the seven-day retrograde period on February 9 last year.

Judging from the results, on February 9 this year, when the seven-day powder increase data was reversed, the average number of UP fans in TOP20 increased by 276000, 166 per cent higher than the 104000 average in the same period last year.

Even if we eliminate the first "Dog Laiba Wild W" (that is, the personal account of the actor who plays "Zhuge Great") caused by the arrival of stars, and the second "paper clip Paperclip", which made the video popular because of the epidemic.The rest of the UP also gained an average of 207000 fans in seven days, almost double the figure for the same period last year.

The "half Buddha" is not an isolated case. The "powder absorption speed" of UP has greatly improved-at least from the head point of view.

02 the optimization direction with "number of concerns" as the core

Is it caused by the surge in traffic during the epidemic? There is this factor, but it is not the key.

We took data from January 7, 2019 and compared it with January 7, 2020, before the epidemic, and many universities had not yet begun their winter vacation.

The results were even more unexpected. In 2020, excluding the first official account of Bilibili Inc. party (extreme case), the average daily fan gain of the remaining 19 UP users was 129800, compared with 45000 in the same period in 2019!

In other words, according to the sampling slices on January 7, this year has increased by 185% over the same period last year, and the gap is even more exaggerated than the 166% when extreme cases were not excluded on February 9 after the outbreak.

The increase in the number of users is not the decisive factor in the rapid increase of fans.

In fact, the growth in the number of Bilibili Inc. users over the past year can be said to be "considerable", but it is not "exaggerated".

According to Bilibili Inc. 's most recent 19Q3 report, the average number of monthly active users in the third quarter was 128 million, an increase of 38 per cent over the same period in 2018. And in the fourth quarter of 2018, Bilibili Inc. 's average monthly active users were only the same as those in the third quarter, and there was no growth, when many voices thought that Bilibili Inc. had reached the user ceiling.

So the question is, we temporarily estimate that the flow in the slice in 2020 has increased by 60% compared with 2019, why the powder absorption efficiency of UP has increased by more than 100%, or even close to 200%?

Sunday financial analysis believes that the improvement of Bilibili Inc. UP powder absorption efficiency is due to the overall flow growth in the station on the one hand, and reflects the positive operation of Bilibili Inc. 's "creator center" ecology on the other hand.

Chen Rui once said on the 19Q3 earnings call, "our AI-based recommendation algorithm is also constantly improving, at the same timeThe community can spread good works by word of mouth.... There are obviously more and more categories of company content, and more and more videos with more than 1 million broadcasts. "

In an interview with later, Chen Rui also mentioned, "Our algorithm is optimized to focus on numbers.... Bilibili Inc. (unlike Douyin), Bilibili Inc. is the main creative content of UP, the content attracts fans, fans inspire UP master, my platform is based on the creator as the core. "

A phenomenon that complements this positive cycle is that the category of Bilibili Inc. 's video content is expanding, and one of the rapidly emerging tracks is the field of "pan-finance, pan-commerce, pan-science and technology" where "semi-Buddha" is located.

Again, growth comes from gaps, especially explosive growth.

Back to the above February 9 slice data, on February 9, 2020, among the 20 UP owners with the fastest fan growth in the past seven days, 5 were in the above areas, accounting for 1/4, second only to the living areas with the largest flow.

And what about the same period in 2019? Only 1 place is at the bottom of the list, and the UP master, which is the digital area for computer-installed videos, is a little close to Pan-Tech.

In fact, if you have recently browsed Bilibili Inc. 's pan-financial and pan-business content, it is easy to find that the number of recommended UP owners in the same field is increasing at a rate visible to the naked eye.

Take the recent hot topic "Lucky being short by Muddy Waters" as an example. We searched for the keyword "Ruixing" in Bilibili Inc.. Of the 20 search results returned on the home page, 15 were works expressing opinions on the incident, and a number of views were more than 10W, which is already a considerable achievement for ordinary UP masters.

If we use "lucky listing" as a keyword search, the comparison will be even more pronounced-the highest number of videos is only 10,000.

Li Mi, vice chairman and chief operating officer of Bilibili Inc., revealed on the 19Q3 earnings call that the average age of Bilibili Inc. users is 21.5 years old.

Data combined with daily intuitive insight, the group of students, especially the group of college students should be said to be the main group of Bilibili Inc. users.

As a group of people who are about to move into society, many of them are interested in business, but lack knowledge of business and finance. Reading heavy business reports is not to their taste, and video forms that are more colloquial and can break up and crush knowledge points are more likely to be popular.

In the past few years, Bilibili Inc. 's videos have been mainly confined to the closed circle of "students do, students watch". People who understand the capital world, make videos and speak are nowhere to be found. However, with the 2019 content out of the circle, more and more people with professional qualities began to enter Bilibili Inc. 's "Nuggets".

Take "Wizarding Finance", the best-known UP host in the pan-business field of B station, as an example. The video producer mainly analyzes the operation of the capital market by analyzing business events. The first video released on September 17, 2019 has attracted 2.3 million followers after a total of 12 videos have been released so far, which is even higher than the conversion rate of "half Buddha".

"Wizard" has previously worked in an investment bank with a wealth of expertise, and one of the idioms in the video is "We turn TA into a direct nursery garden" to explain obscure business concepts to the audience in a simple way. Even on the snowball of the investor community, many users expressed their appreciation for the content of wizard finance.

High-quality supply meets a business rookie with demand, to some extent, it can be understood as a sinking dividend for professional content.

Sunday Finance believes that the trend of reaping content dividends in Bilibili Inc. by translating, reprocessing and video output in a down-to-earth way will continue in 2020.

Outside the field of pan-commercial finance and economics, opportunities also exist in music, fashion and other vertical categories, and with more "regular armies" entering the market, Bilibili Inc. 's content is expected to spread more frequently.

03 UP Lord "just in time for dinner". What about Bilibili Inc.?

Profitability is the key question that Bilibili Inc. has been answering to the capital market.

Compared with 84% of game revenue in 2017, Bilibili Inc. 's game business revenue share has gradually dropped to 50% in the most recent quarter, and the income structure has become healthier.

But even so, Bilibili Inc. 's listing is still losing money with rising marketing and marketing costs, with the net loss for the quarter rising 65 per cent year-on-year to 406 million yuan, according to 19Q3.

Judging from the data that Bilibili Inc. currently uses 83 minutes per day and has a retention rate of more than 80% in the 12th month, it is not difficult for new users to contact Bilibili Inc. in this extraordinary period to complete effective precipitation, but commercial transformation is still difficult.

In addition to games, Bilibili Inc. 's three revenue sources are live broadcast and value-added services, advertising, and e-commerce. Among them, e-commerce is in the early stage, from the gross profit margin to see that the loss is expanding, still need some time to observe, prop up profit expectations mainly from the first two.

Watch the live broadcast first.By signing Feng Timo, it is almost certain that Bilibili Inc. is going to go in the form of live shows drawn by a small number of "eldest brothers". It may be able to maintain rapid growth in the short term, but in the long run, there will be a question mark over the match between the live show form and Bilibili Inc. 's video community.

First of all, a very direct problem is that in Bilibili Inc., live streaming is obviously not as good as video.Compared with the short videos in the hands of Douyin Express, the threshold for video production on site B is higher. However, the higher editing cost and production difficulty lead to a better content consumption experience and a greater information density of video content.

In comparison, the weakness of live streaming is that it can only be carried out at the speed of "1.0x", the information density is low, and the advantages are real-time experience and high empathy. But don't forget that Bilibili Inc. 's video is known for its on-screen comment, and the empathy experience is not bad. In this way, the advantages of live broadcasting are not much, but the disadvantages can be greatly put.

The second question is that Bilibili Inc. 's main users are students. How many "eldest brothers" with strong spending power can there be among students who do not earn money?The "charging" function, which also requires users to give a real reward, has been online since 2016, but until now, even the head UP owner has made limited gains from the "charging" function.

The realization of advertising is also a thorny problem.Originally, patch advertising should be the most direct way to solve Bilibili Inc. 's "Qiafan" problem, but due to various factors, Bilibili Inc., who has come to this stage today, no longer has the possibility to start the program.

Increasing AdLoad does great harm to the community atmosphere. We believe that it is not Chen Rui's personal interest to increase advertising blindly. How to make advertising have more relevance with Bilibili Inc. 's content form and UP's main ecology, including improving the delivery algorithm of the advertising platform, and making a good balance with user experience is a problem that Bilibili Inc. wants to think about this year.

04 conclusion: the good times of UP Lord, the year of Bilibili Inc. breaking the customs

Video is the pen of this era, and everyone should learn to write.

Bilibili Inc. launched the video incentive program in January 2018 and readjusted the access rules in July 2019.

In a nutshell, when you can join the incentive program through some initial efforts, the number of UP main video works and other interactive data can be converted into a certain amount of incentive income.

According to some of the income videos uploaded by UP hosts, every 10, 000 broadcasts can roughly correspond to pre-tax income ranging from 20 to 30 yuan.Take the data posted by UP host "I am Mang 11" as an example, his video works were played in total, earning about 15500 yuan in incentive income, equivalent to 22.50 yuan for every 10,000 broadcasts.

This is a good time for content creators.

However, Bilibili Inc. 's current valuation of more than $8 billion has nothing to do with "undervaluation". Although it is not easy to find strictly targeted companies, there are two enterprises that can provide some reference.

Weibo Corp, who is in the mature stage, but has a larger user base and has made a profit, currently has a market capitalization of 10.1 billion US dollars. Kuaishou Technology, who has not yet been listed, comprehensive media reported that his latest estimate is about 25 billion US dollars. Kuaishou Technology's revenue is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in 2019.

Chen Ruizeng said that if Bilibili Inc. could reach a market capitalization of 10 billion US dollars, Bilibili Inc. 's annual revenue should also reach 10 billion yuan. At present, Bilibili Inc. 's total revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 is 4.77 billion yuan. The conservative estimate of annual revenue is about 6.8 billion, an increase of 64% over the same period in 2018.

If Bilibili Inc. breaks through 10 billion yuan, it depends on 2020 yuan.