展望今年余下两个月，楼价料倾向平稳慢升，因一手新盘货源仍然十分充裕，发展商继续采取先求量的推盘策略，令二手楼价难以大升。倘11月及12月楼价能环比各升0.5%，则第四季楼价可以结束之前连续6季的跌势，环比微升1.63%，带动全年楼价跌幅略为收窄至5.88%。至于明年楼价走势，尚待观察特朗普重返白宫后的经济及军事政策再作评估。Chen Haichao, head of the research department at Lijiage Real Estate, stated that factors such as interest rate cuts and market support are initially showing significant impacts, stimulating a slight rebound in housing prices.
According to the Zhitong Financial APP, Chen Haichao, head of the research department at Lijiage Real Estate, indicated that the bullish factors such as interest rate cuts and market rescue measures are initially effective, leading to a slight rebound in housing prices. However, there are still uncertainties with the new usa president taking office, and whether the momentum for Hong Kong housing prices to rise can be sustained remains in doubt. The latest data released today by the Rating and Valuation Department shows that the private residence price index in October 2024 stands at 290.1 points, rising 0.62% from September's 288.3 points, marking the first rebound after five consecutive months of decline. In the first ten months of this year, housing prices have cumulatively fallen by 6.81%; compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the cumulative decline in housing prices still reaches 27.13%.
Chen Haichao pointed out that the successful rebound in housing prices in October was better than previously predicted, believing that the market clearly reflected the optimism that began with the interest rate cuts in mid-September and the central government’s strong market support in late September. Additionally, at the beginning of October, the market was already anticipating that the Policy Address would provide good news for the real estate market, hence the rebound in housing prices was stronger than expected.
Looking ahead to the remaining two months of this year, housing prices are likely to rise steadily and slowly, as the supply of new first-hand properties remains abundant. Developers continue to adopt a strategy focused on quantity, making it difficult for secondary market housing prices to rise significantly. If housing prices in November and December can each rise by 0.5% compared to the previous month, then the prices in the fourth quarter can break the previous trend of six consecutive quarters of decline, with a month-on-month slight increase of 1.63%, leading to a narrowing of the overall annual decline in housing prices to 5.88%. As for the trend of housing prices next year, it will depend on evaluating the economic and military policies after Trump returns to the White House.
