标普500指数今年的强劲表现得益于经济增长强劲，以及围绕人工智能等新技术的持续兴奋。然而，这只iShares动量ETF的回报率更胜一筹，其策略是押注近期股价表现强劲的股票。In 2024, the roi reached 40%, far exceeding the s&p 500's 27%. With the support of a robust economy and expectations of interest rate cuts, can this etf continue its brilliance?
For iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, 2024 is a year of bountiful harvest.
The stock market has shown strong performance this year, and $iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM.US)$ has performed even better. Data shows that the fund's ROI reached 40% in 2024, far exceeding the 27% increase. All signs indicate that this ETF may continue to rise in 2025.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The strong performance of the S&P 500 index this year is due to robust economic growth and continued excitement around new technologies like artificial intelligence. However, the ROI of this iShares momentum ETF outshines it, with a strategy of betting on stocks with strong recent price performance.
According to the independent research institution DataTrek's report on Tuesday, this outperformance may continue until 2025.
"The U.S. economy remains strong, and the Fed is inclined to cut rates. We believe that the fundamental drivers of these markets will not change significantly in the coming months," the institution wrote in the report.
Reviewing the rolling one-year performance since 2014, this momentum ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 index by an average of 1.2 percentage points per year, despite experiencing periods of underperformance. DataTrek points out that the fund performs best in so-called 'typical mid-cycle markets' – periods when investors are confident about the direction of the Fed and the economy.
In contrast, this ETF underperformed in 2021 and 2022. DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas stated that at that time, investors were concerned that the Fed's rate hikes would make it difficult for large tech stocks to maintain high valuations. However, the market's concerns proved to be unfounded – the excitement around artificial intelligence ignited market enthusiasm since the debut of ChatGPT in November 2022.
"Thanks to ChatGPT, it's like rocket fuel," said Colas in an interview.
Technology stocks still play an important role in the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, but their weight is not as high as expected.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$And.$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$It is the main holding of the fund, accounting for a total of 10% of the fund's investment portfolio. However, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ 、$Walmart (WMT.US)$And.$Costco (COST.US)$the weight of other stocks is also significant. According to iShares official website data, the financial sector is the largest industry in the fund, accounting for 24%, slightly higher than the information technology sector.
Of course, the bull market cannot last indefinitely, as stock valuations are already high. Currently, this momentum ETF has a P/E ratio of 23 times, a significant increase from 14 times two years ago, and higher than the S&P 500's 22 times level (FactSet data).
However, Colas pointed out that there are currently no signs indicating that the market will experience a correction in the next few months. Economic growth remains solid, and the Federal Reserve is gradually easing monetary policy. Although investors are debating the extent of the Fed's rate cuts next year, it is widely believed that interest rates will decline. Wall Street's "fear index" Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 23 before the November 5th elections, but has recently fallen to 15, below its long-term average of around 19.
Editor/rice
