Source: Brokerage China Author: Qu Hongyan Recently, China Yangtze Power hit a historical high and once again showed the slow bull stock trend of "tripling in ten years". The slow bull market has left behind many passers-by and brought good returns to the steadfast investors. It is "rare for those who triple in one year to be like carp jumping over the dragon gate, while those who double in three years are few and far between." On the other end of the investment world, however, violent collapses are also deafening, with many financial products suspected of "Ponzi schemes" ceasing payments, leaving investors with no hope of recovering their investments. Both positive and negative cases illustrate the importance of forming a suitable mentality towards money in one's lifetime; otherwise, sooner or later, you will divorce yourself from your money. "I call this the money mind, a person's IQ can reach 120, 140, or even higher levels, and perhaps some people's minds are good at doing one thing, while others are good at doing another. They can do things that most ordinary people can't do. But I know some very smart people who make very foolish decisions because they lack the money mind." Buffett once said so. The so-called money mind refers to believing in common sense, believing in compound interest, being cautious and rational, thinking independently, prioritizing security over return, not dealing with people with questionable character, not easily guaranteeing for others, not believing in windfall profits, and not trying to cross legal norms for extra benefits. In today's world of ubiquitous information, everyone's wealth may become the "prey" of those with ulterior motives. Only with the money mind, can one form good behavior habits and shield oneself from separating from one's wealth. Do not entrust your wealth easily. Wealth is easy to lose but hard to accumulate, and trust is a vital reason leading to the rapid loss of wealth. "Do not allow anyone else to manage your business unless you can watch their every move closely and understand their behavior; or you have strong reasons to believe in their character and ability. For investors, this criterion determines when you can let someone else make investment decisions for you." Graham's criterion written eighty years ago is so clear. Almost all the investors who lost their wealth in the financial products have violated the above two criteria. They did not have the ability to closely supervise the whereabouts of their funds, nor did they have sufficient reasons to believe in the character of the product issuers. They easily invested their own wealth solely based on others' glib tongue and a piece of commitment paper. They did not act as gatekeepers of their own wealth and ended up with nothing left even if the government punished the wrongdoers. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." This is a phrase Munger often says. Destiny must be in one's own hands, and investors with a suitable money mind will try their best to find suspicious points in their investments to protect the safety of their principal. For example, whether the manager is trustworthy, whether the underlying assets are profitable, whether oneself can timely monitor the risks in the investment process, and whether the sales staff is obtaining large commissions. As long as any unreliable signs are found, these investors firmly will not invest their money. Do not desire to get rich quick. As in the capital market and anywhere else, making money is not easy, and desiring to get rich quick will lead to quick loss of wealth. In the capital market, the desire to get rich quickly often leads to investors over-allocating specific stocks, industries, or assets at the worst time. For example, buying high-risk stocks that can gain huge returns once an adventure succeeds, but the chance of success is very small, also known as "whispering stocks" by legendary fund manager Peter Lynch. "They often tell investors a story with explosive effects. These 'whispering stocks' have a hypnotic effect on people, and it is easy for you to believe that the story the company tells has an emotional appeal that can easily confuse you." This is like hearing a very tempting "sizzling" sound, making you salivate, but you did not notice that there is no steak on the grill. In the eyes of investors who lack the money mind, stable yield provided by blue chips such as China Yangtze Power cannot meet their demands. However, historical experience clearly shows that buying stocks lacking in safety solely based on imagined high yields is unwise. The long-term average investment return of general stocks is 9%-10%, which is also the average investment return of stock indexes in history, a benchmark to measure one's investment performance and the benchmark to measure fund investment performance.

Author: Shi Qian. Will this be the arrival of the "real wolf"? The consumption tax rumors suddenly spread in various investment groups yesterday after the close of trading. There are reports that a trillion-level consumption tax reform will be approaching, and luxury goods and high-end services may be the first to test. As of the close of trading this morning, consumer stocks suddenly rebounded collectively, and retail and duty-free areas led the rise. Among them,

Yesterday, although the entire A-share market was relatively weak, the A50 surged strongly after a dip in early trading, and this pattern continues today, taking place against the backdrop of a softening Asia-Pacific market. MSCI China A50 Stock Connect index futures,$FTSE China A50 Index (.FTXIN9.CN)$Futures surged strongly in the afternoon.

In terms of hong kong stocks, as of the market close.$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ Increased by 3.61%.$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Increased by over 7%, $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Increased by over 5%.

Analysts believe that the market changes may contain two logics. One is the defensive logic; Trump 2.0 has already begun to ferment in the global market. Compared to 1.0, the 'America First' ideology runs through it, with similarities including support for domestic tax cuts and increased tariffs, while differences are that, with changing circumstances, Trump's 2.0 cabinet places more importance on reducing government spending and curbing inflation. The second is the expectation of development. According to citic sec, the central economic work conference in 2024 is expected to be held in mid-December, where the current economic situation will be analyzed, and economic work goals for 2025 will be determined.

Counterattack.

Today, the Asia-Pacific market continues to show weakness, but the performance of the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remains strong. The A50 index fell slightly in the morning session but quickly rebounded. As of the time of writing,$MCA Futures(DEC4) (MCAmain.HK)$has risen over 2%, $FTSE China A50 Index Futures(NOV4) (CNmain.SG)$ Rising more than 1%.

At the close,$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ up by 3.61%, $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ Increased by over 5%. $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Rising over 7%; CHINEXT price index rose by 2.73%, once fell by over 1% in the morning, Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.53%, Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.25%, leading the rise in IP economy, civil aviation airports, brokerages, military industry and other sectors.

It is worth mentioning that the previously lagging consumer and medical sectors have performed very well, with baijiu(chinese liquor) stocks.$Sichuan Swellfun (600779.SH)$At one point, it surged to the daily limit.$Jiugui Liquor (000799.SZ)$、$Shede Spirits (600702.SH)$Increased by nearly 5%. And drove.$CSI 300 Index (399300.SZ)$And.$CSI A500 Index (000510.SH)$to strengthen.

The market's pattern of more declines than gains also indicates that funds are concentrating on blue chips. At the same time, yesterday's volume (turnover) in the all market has dropped to 1.3 trillion yuan, which may to some extent affect the speculation on individual stocks. Such a level of volume is difficult to support speculation across multiple themes. If the subsequent volume cannot continue to expand or cannot be maintained above 1 trillion yuan, it may bring some variables.

Future expectations.

Currently, global market transactions are clearly centered around Trump 2.0.

Puyin International believes that next year, global economic uncertainty will significantly increase following Trump's return to the White House. Especially his clear advocacy for tariffs may bring greater uncertainty to the global economy. However, drawing from Trump's first term, the uncertainty of his policies remains high. Due to the heightened uncertainty, policy support will continue to intensify. Active fiscal policy may become even more proactive, primarily aimed at resolving risks, promoting consumer spending, and stabilizing investment.

Recent trading of assets in china may still focus on domestic variables. Citic Sec stated that the Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 is expected to be held in mid-December, during which the current economic situation will be analyzed and the economic work goals for 2025 will be set.

It is expected that the conference will maintain a positive outlook for macro policies next year, and the subsequent new round of policy deployment will significantly boost market confidence:

1. Debt reduction: expedite the allocation and issuance of special bonds for replacement;

2. Real estate: implement urban village renovation, acquisition restrictions on land, and storage and demand-side policy relaxation;

3. Consumer goods: continue to expand the trade-in for old for new, and broaden the supply of service consumption;

4. Technology and industrial policy focus on industrial upgrading, self-control, and participation of private enterprises;

Boosting the capital markets and deepening state-owned enterprise reform resonate to improve investor returns.

Analysts believe that, based on institutions' determinations and the market structure from the Trump 1.0 era, consumer may take a more important position. Moreover, from the perspective of economic stimulus, only when consumer rises can the economic cycle truly move towards health.

Editor/Rocky