During the heating season, as gas prices rise, how high is the heat of gas stocks in the Hong Kong stock market? From the institutional perspective, there are still divergent views, what risks are worth paying attention to?
According to Caixin report on November 27th (edited by Feng Yi), today Hong Kong gas stocks collectively became active, becoming a new hot spot in the short-term market.
As of the time of publication, enn energy (02688.HK) rose by over 5%, binhai inv (02886.HK) rose nearly 4%, bg blue sky (06828.HK) rose over 3%, shanghai dazhong public utilities (01635.HK), china gas hold (00384.HK) and other stocks followed the upward trend.
On the news front, driven by the recent cold weather forecast and the rise in liquefied natural gas feed gas prices, the international natural gas prices have experienced a surge.
On the trend side, since September, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures prices have been continuously rising, with signs of accelerated rise recently.
Goldman Sachs analysts stated that if Europe faces tight natural gas supply this winter, the price of liquefied natural gas in Asia may soar to over $20 per million British thermal units.
It is worth noting that with the opening of the winter heating mode, domestic natural gas demand has also entered its peak season. In the recent period, many places such as jiangsu, jilin, peking, shanghai have successively issued relevant notices and initiated a gas price linkage mechanism.
Analysts Zuo Qianming and Li Chunchi from China Securities Co.,Ltd. mentioned in a previous report that in October, China's natural gas production increased by 8.4% year-on-year.
At the same time, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas in the country from January to September was 318.37 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. Among them, the consumption in September was 33.88 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a growth rate higher than the year-to-date cumulative value.
In addition, there were concerns in the market previously that Trump's energy policies would disrupt the global supply-demand balance.
Reports have mentioned that Trump's transition team is preparing to launch a wide-ranging energy plan in the first few days after taking office. Trump plans to abolish Biden's clean energy plan and emphasize the role of natural gas resources. Trump will expedite drilling permits for oil and natural gas on land, holding more sales.
However, Goldman Sachs stated that Trump's approval of liquefied natural gas projects will only increase supply starting from 2027. However, as of the time of publication, US natural gas futures fell by 3% intraday, indicating a pullback.
China Securities Co., Ltd. futures analyst Dong Dandan's report last week also pointed out that after the Arctic cold wave ends, the supportive effect of the European natural gas demand side will gradually diminish. Northeast Asia has now accumulated a considerable amount of natural gas inventory. If the weather in Northeast Asia is not as cold as previously expected but rather warmer, it could put pressure on the global natural gas market.
China Securities Co., Ltd. futures believes that considering both fundamental and emotional factors, there is a possibility for TTF natural gas futures prices to reach a temporary peak at the current level.
