Gelonghui November 27 | The UBS Group's Office of Investment Strategy expects that Trump's election as president of the usa may reshape the usa's economic and geopolitical landscape, particularly as tariff measures might disrupt trade exchanges, weaken domestic demand, and push inflation higher. UBS indicated that in a downside scenario, tariff shocks could even lead to stagflation. On the other hand, negotiations between the usa and its trading partners are obstructed by relevant domestic legislation, which could help ease the scope and impact of tariff implementation, while potential tax cuts and deregulation measures might provide additional support to the market. In the baseline scenario, considering the usa's robust economic growth, declining interest rates, and the ai boom, bullish prospects for the us stock market are anticipated next year, with the s&p 500 index expected to rise to 6600 points by the end of next year. Meanwhile, the dollar may experience the influence of both short-term bullish factors and long-term bearish factors, with bullish factors such as a tight labor market and potential tariff measures, and bearish factors including high valuations.