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宝立食品(603170):主业一枝独秀 空刻触底反弹

Baoli Foods (603170): The main business was outstanding and instantly hit bottom and rebounded

gtja ·  Nov 27

Introduction to this report:

Deeply cultivating the best track to embrace the best customers, 2B's main business performance is outstanding; at the same time, under the influence of new products/new channels, it instantly bottomed out and rebounded.

Key points of investment:

Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Maintain the 2024-2026 EPS of 0.58/0.73/0.89 yuan, -23/+26/ +23% year on year. Refer to Haitian Wei Industry, Richen Co., Ltd., Qianweiyang Chef, Tianwei Foods and Ligao Foods to give the company 25 PE in 2025, and raise the target price to 18.25 yuan (previous value was 15.84 yuan);

Deeply cultivate the best track to embrace the best customers, and the resilience of the main business performance is outstanding. Western-style fast food chains are based on the characteristics of high standardization, leading the large restaurant industry, and the high cost performance brought about by their large-scale effects. Overall, the large-scale growth rate of Western-style fast food chains is outstanding in the catering industry, while Polar is deeply involved in the Western-style restaurant chain circuit to provide solutions for the highest quality Western chain brands such as Yum Sheng China, McDonald's, and Domino. In the context of overall restaurant growth pressure, the characteristics of high barriers in the seasoning segment are less affected by downstream food and beverage customer price pressure than suppliers in the baking and meat fields Overall performance resilience is prominent.

Based on research and development, production capacity shortfalls were made up, and gradually moved from a small 5 billion market to a 70 billion large market.

Against the backdrop of increasingly prominent demand for cost reduction and efficiency in downstream catering, based on the gradual improvement of Polaroid's own production capacity shortfall (successive layout of baking and upstream spices starting in 2023), and driven by its continuous improvement of reputation in the industry with R&D as a starting point, we are optimistic that its product form will gradually be upgraded from seasoning to an overall solution. In the future, the company will gradually move from a small 5 billion customized meal market to a 70 billion Western-style fast food market.

New product/new channel two-wheel drive, instantly bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by the optimization of the governance structure, Kuboku began strengthening its efforts to promote new products and expand new channels in 2024. In terms of brand positioning, it was upgraded from the previous “empty print = pasta” to “a comprehensive solution around exquisite nursing mothers and urban white-collar workers”. New products such as fast food pasta, sausage, and sauces are constantly emerging, while continuing to strengthen the offline channel layout through improving the dealer system. The proportion of offline channels increased significantly in 2024. Driven by the resonance of new products and new channels, it instantly bottomed out in 2024. Looking ahead to the medium to long term, we are optimistic that it will continue to reap excess profits as gaps in empty products/channels continue to be filled.

Risk warning: demand for food and beverage continues to weaken; food safety risks, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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