If the strategy from Trump's first term as president has any guiding significance, then his recent threat to impose tariffs on usa's major trade partners is just the beginning of negotiations, not the end.

Trump posted on social media that unless mexico and canada strengthen their control over immigration and illegal drugs entering the usa, he will impose a 25% tariff on imports from these two countries and an additional 10% tariff on china's goods.

All of this reminds people of a series of threats from his first term. In May 2019, Trump announced on social media that if mexico did not stop immigrants from reaching the usa's southern border, he would impose a 5% tariff on mexican goods within 10 days and gradually increase the tariff. Ultimately, mexico complied with the demands, and the tariffs were never implemented.

Juan Carlos Baker, who helped negotiate the current trade agreement between mexico, the usa, and canada, stated, "I felt a strong sense of déjà vu."

Baker said that trade partners during Trump's first term "actually learned something, and that experience is useful now." But I still warn everyone not to assume that just because we have gone through the Trump 1.0 era, we fully understand what is happening now and how to respond."

One challenge this time is that Trump has nearly two months before he takes office. How far he wants to push the situation is another great unknown.

Trump's threat to withdraw from the north american free trade agreement led to the birth of the us-mexico-canada agreement. And he threatened to impose tariffs on mexico if it did not use the national guard to stop immigrants, while this new agreement was being finalized.

A series of tariffs have been imposed on china, which have decreased after an agreement was reached between the usa and china.

Tariffs have been imposed on steel and aluminum products from around the world, including those from the usa's largest trading partner, the European Union.

Daniel Tannebaum, a partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman, said: "Announcing this two months before he took office certainly hints at preparing for negotiations. We must see what actions the new government team will actually take after taking office."

Trump's new term has two distinct differences.

First, Trump is more familiar with the operation of power. Individuals familiar with the plan but unwilling to be named revealed that this time, he plans to quickly implement tariffs by declaring a national emergency using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, similar to how he obtained some "border wall" funding from a reluctant Congress in 2019.

In contrast, his initial tariffs took about a year to implement because the necessary investigative procedures progressed slowly through the trade bureaucracy in the usa.

Dan Ujczo, a senior legal advisor at Thompson Hine, said: "This will move at a very fast pace," he has dealt with trade issues in North America and china, "the tariffs announced on Monday evening are 'tactical and transactional', aimed at achieving desired outcomes."

Second, some market-friendly and impulse-suppressing officials from Trump's first term have left, such as his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, former goldman sachs executive Gary Cohn—Cohn restrained Trump when he threatened to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement—and even his first Secretary of State, former exxon mobil CEO Rex Tillerson.

Among the recently announced other cabinet nominees, the most important characteristic seems to be loyalty to Trump and his way of criticizing the establishment.

A major exception may be the Treasury Secretary pick, Bencent, chosen by Trump. This hedge fund manager has called for a gradual approach to limit trade and seems willing to negotiate the specifics of tariffs.

The neighbors of the USA quickly responded to the threats issued on Monday. According to an informed government official, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke on the phone with Trump to discuss border security and trade issues.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called for cooperation but also hinted at Mexico taking retaliatory actions. This is because the tariffs would violate the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which would only lead Mexico and Canada to retaliate with their own tariffs.

Trump's tariff policy continues to impact US-China trade. For a period, he actually raised tariffs on more than $500 billion of US imports each year, demonstrating a willingness to accept costs to American consumers, with most economists estimating that American consumers would ultimately bear the burden of these tariffs.

In the trade agreement reached with China in 2020, these tariffs were reduced. The tariffs on about $300 billion of commodities retained by Trump were maintained by Biden, who even raised some tariffs earlier this year, demonstrating the lasting influence of some of Trump's decisions.

Editor/rice