Due to the expectation of a surplus in global oil supply next year, along with the complexity introduced by Trump's oil drilling agenda as the newly elected president of the usa, OPEC+, composed of major oil-producing countries, faces a dilemma at the meeting this Sunday.

Roukaya Ibrahim, a commodity strategist at BCA Research, stated: "OPEC+ is in a predicament."

With the slowdown in global demand growth, Ibrahim mentioned that if OPEC+ relaxes oil production restrictions, it would increase downward pressure on prices. At the same time, if OPEC+ is dissatisfied with non-OPEC+ countries (like the usa) expanding market share at the expense of their interests, this may prompt the group to start rolling back some supply cuts.

OPEC+ will hold a ministerial meeting on Sunday. Details have not been disclosed, but reports indicate that the meeting will be held online, which may suggest that the group does not intend to make significant changes to its production plan.

Ibrahim said: "OPEC+ is likely to lean towards delaying production increases again."

According to the CME group's OPEC+ monitoring tool, as of Tuesday afternoon, the probability of the group maintaining its production plan unchanged is about 71%. It also indicates that there is roughly a 13% chance that OPEC+ will increase production, while nearly 16% will further delay production increases.

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and director at CIBC Private Wealth usa, stated that the recent developments in the ceasefire between israel and Hezbollah led to a drop in crude oil prices, and she noted that this "reinforces the internal view within OPEC+ that now is not an ideal time to reintroduce more crude oil to the market."

In a report released in mid-November, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 0.103 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.

Trump, who will take office on January 20 next year, has stated that he hopes to increase oil & gas production in the usa to help reduce consumer energy costs.

This is concerning for OPEC+. Razan Hilal, an analyst at stonex, stated that Trump's oil drilling agenda could lead to an oversupply in the market and undermine OPEC+'s efforts to stabilize oil prices, prompting the group to be cautious toward the Trump administration.

Biden strategically increased oil production in the usa, reducing dependence on external oil. During Biden's term, oil production in the usa reached a record high of over 13 million barrels per day, surpassing any other country in the world.

Hilal indicated that Trump's aggressive plan to significantly lower energy prices and boost oil production in the usa poses a "direct threat" to OPEC+'s market share. Nevertheless, stricter sanctions imposed by Trump on Iran and Russia could tighten supply, thereby supporting higher oil prices and avoiding a price crash.

It should also be considered that changes in production levels in the usa will take time.

Even if us policies become more favorable to energy development, Ibrahim from BCA Research mentioned that she does not expect these changes to have an immediate significant impact on production in the usa. Rather, this effect may manifest "over a longer-term, multi-year timeframe."

That is to say, the expansion of production in the usa has contributed to the growth of global oil output, which "offsets the impact of OPEC+'s production cuts on prices and exerts pressure on OPEC+'s market share," she stated. She believes this dynamic makes it more likely for OPEC+ to increase production than to further cut it.

The Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen nominated by Trump suggested that Trump pursue a '3-3-3' policy: reducing the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, stimulating GDP growth by 3%, and increasing crude oil product production by 3 million barrels per day.

Hilal from stonex stated that such an increase in oil production could 'force OPEC+ to adjust production to maintain stability and market share,' but the group's response would 'depend on global demand, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions.'

Furthermore, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth US, indicated that the market generally believes that such an increase in production is 'unlikely to be realized in the short term, as projects take time to come online.'

She stated, 'Regulatory changes alone are not enough to drive a significant increase in US production in the short term,' unless there is a notable increase in US production within the next year, which she considers to be 'extremely unlikely,' then it would be surprising for OPEC+ to respond to that.