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特朗普第一枪对市场的意义:“推特治国”回来了

The significance of Trump's first shot to the market: "Twitter governance" has returned.

wallstreetcn ·  Nov 27 08:54

Without warning, posting on Truth Social and triggering significant market volatility, this is typical "Trump style". Traders suggest closely monitoring Trump's posts in the future, choosing a direction first, and then "selling volatility after news release".

Before taking office, Trump posted on social media about imposing tariffs, bringing back the familiar taste of "governing via Twitter". Global traders will now need to register on Truth Social to monitor Trump's posts in real time.

According to CCTV News reported yesterday, on the 25th local time, US President-elect Trump stated that all products entering the US from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff. In addition, Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market reacted with shock, the US dollar rose in the short term, the offshore RMB against the US dollar approached the 7.26 level, and the Mexican peso fell by over 1%.

This statement was issued by Trump on his social media platform Truth Social, causing traders to start gearing up for Trump's return and the potential market turmoil that his "governing via Twitter" approach may bring.

In New York, traders and analysts flocked to their computers after the news broke. A senior analyst with 26 years of forex trading experience at AT Global Markets stated:

Once again, a familiar bad situation has emerged on social media, with the muscle memory from Trump's 1.0 term coming into play.

The good news is that during Trump's four years in office, there were plenty of money-making opportunities. Despite some losses, he still profited from betting against the Mexican peso and Australian dollar.

Shawn Oh, a stock trader at NH Investment & Securities Ltd in Seoul, said:

After Trump posted on Truth Social, the market experienced severe fluctuations, reminding us of how much impact his statements can have and how far they can spread. During his first term, Trump's round-the-clock social media posts sometimes caused sudden market fluctuations, disrupting the work and sleep schedules of global investors. This is a typical "Trump style".

Having someone like Besent serving as Treasury Secretary at least gives people some relief. I believe people will expect Trump to be more cautious than the first time, but there will still be many surprises.

Tsutomu Soma, a trader with 39 years of experience and based in Tokyo, is one of those preparing for Trump's return. He stated:

"It's a good trading environment. After Trump is elected President, the headlines will be very important—there will be a lot of speculation and conflicting views on trading."

Analyst Manish Bhargava in Singapore, over 3000 miles away, is taking a step that global traders may take in the coming months:

Registering on Truth Social to closely follow Trump's social media posts. Monitoring his posts closely is crucial, considering Trump's past experience of sharing his unfiltered thoughts and policy intentions through social media. We can anticipate similar patterns in the future.

Analyst Calvin Yeoh of Blue Edge Advisors stated:

The trading market is like participating in an obstacle race, but during Trump's presidency, it's like trading "under mortar fire." Even if you have a direction, it's already difficult enough, but you can't see the real trouble. My strategy is to choose a direction, and then "sell volatility after the news release."

In addition, it's not just the market, traders and diplomats have also learned from Trump's four years in the White House. Before overreacting to criticism on social media, take a deep breath, and wait for the importance of details and negotiations. Both the market response and the Canadian government's reaction reflect a view that Trump's Truth Social posts are just the first step in negotiations, which may ultimately result in less damage to global trade.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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