Source: Wall Street See

等待10月PCE通胀，美联储11月会议纪要称官员们支持渐进降息，仍存在降息空间，部分官员认为暂停或加快降息的选项取决于经济数据。美元指数涨幅收窄徘徊107关口。两年期美债收益率从日高4.29323%回落至接近4.27%的平盘位，现货黄金转涨至2626美元/盎司。

美国经济数据好坏参半。10月新屋销售环比下降17.3%至0.61 million户，低于预期并创约两年新低，11月咨商会消费者信心升至逾一年高点，得益于特朗普胜选后对经济和就业市场的乐观态度。对未来一年股市上涨的预期创新高，五年通胀预期降至4.9%为2020年3月以来最低。

特朗普威胁对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税，墨西哥总统暗示报复式关税回击，高盛预计美联储最看重的核心PCE通胀率将上升近1%。美国汽车制造商跌幅较深，通用汽车跌约9%为2022年6月来最差，iShares墨西哥ETF EWW一度跌3%，SPDR零售业ETF XRT一度跌超2%。墨西哥比索最深跌2.7%至两年多最低，加元四年半最低，离岸人民币跌超200点失守7.27元后跌幅砍半。

中东局势继续缓和，据央视新闻，以色列安全内阁批准黎以停火协议，以色列总理内塔尼亚称将执行黎以停火协议，之后重点关注“伊朗威胁”，以媒称黎以停火协议将于27日10时开始生效。油价由涨转跌至收跌超0.2%至一周新低，盘中一度跌超1%且美油回落至68美元下方，美股盘初还曾反弹近2%并站上70美元。

美联储会议纪要显示，美联储在降息周期方面突然变得更加强硬，但12月降息可能性正在上升

周二，美股三大指数收于日高附近，道指、标普创新高，小盘股跌离新高。大型科技股表现优异。因中东局势缓解，受油价拖累，能源股落后，特朗普关税提议打压欧美汽车股，通用汽车跌约9%为两年多最深。个股中，安进减肥药Maritide研究不及华尔街高预期，盘初一度跌超12%拖累道指，富国银行连续四日创新高，该公司资产上限可能在2025年上半年取消：

• The three major indices of the U.S. stock market all rose. The s&p 500 index closed up 34.26 points, or 0.57%, at 6021.63 points. The dow jones index, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 123.74 points, or 0.28%, to 44860.31 points. The nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, increased by 119.46 points, or 0.63%, to 19174.30 points. The nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.57%. The nasdaq technology market cap weighted index (ndxtmc), which measures the performance of the nasdaq 100 tech stocks, gained 0.49%. The russell 2000 small cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, fell by 0.73%. The volatility index vix decreased by 3.42%, closing at 14.10.

• Most U.S. sector etfs rose. The internet stocks index etf rose over 0.7%, while the medical etf and technology sector etf rose at least 0.5%. The global technology stocks index etf climbed over 0.3%, the financial sector etf increased by 0.2%, the smallest rise, while the energy sector etf fell over 0.1%. The semiconductor etf and the banking sector etf dropped over 0.9%, with the regional bank etf down 1.07%.

• Most of the 11 sectors in the s&p rose. The materials sector fell by 0.67%, energy sector declined by 0.23%, industrial sector rose by 0.15%, financial sector increased by 0.21%, medical care sector grew by 0.45%, real estate sector up by 0.53%, consumer staples sector climbed by 0.65%, information technology/technology sector up by 0.80%, telecommunications sector increased by 0.81%, consumer discretionary sector rose by 0.90%, and utilities sector gained 1.56%.

• In investment strategy, Morgan Stanley forecasted the U.S. economy in 2025, stating that the "high inflation, slow growth" era is coming, with interest rate cuts entering the "slow lane." Deutsche Bank strategists provided the strongest expectation for U.S. stocks on Wall Street, predicting that the s&p 500 index will reach 7000 points. Bank of America expects the s&p 500 index to rise to 6666 points by 2025, being bullish on cyclical stocks.

• Among the "magnificent 7" tech stocks, only Tesla declined, down by 0.11%, while nvidia rose by 0.62%. Google A increased by 0.88%. Apple gained 0.94%, Meta grew by 1.49%. Amazon rose by 3.19%. Microsoft increased by 2.2%.

• Most semiconductor stocks fell. The phlx semiconductor index dropped 1.21%, and the industry etf SOXX fell 1.3%. NVIDIA's double long etf increased by 1.3%. Wolfspeed fell by 10.76%, Qualcomm dropped by 1.19%, ASML holding ADR decreased by 1.83%, Broadcom fell 0.05%, Intel declined 3.3%, as the company received $7.9 billion in U.S. chip subsidies for advanced chip factories. Reports indicate that Qualcomm's interest in acquiring Intel has cooled. KLA Corp dropped 2.05%, on semiconductor declined 2.13%, AMD fell by 2.42%, Arm Holdings dropped 2.12%, Micron Technology fell 2.57%, Applied Materials dropped 0.77%, and Taiwan Semiconductor ADR decreased by 0.67%.

• Most AI concept stocks declined. Serve Robotics fell by 0.34%, BigBear.ai dropped 5.78%. Dell Technologies decreased by 1.68%, as Q3 revenues fell short of expectations, and it briefly lost over 7% after hours. AI voice company SoundHound AI, which is held by NVIDIA, dropped 5.23%, Super Micro Computer fell 10.4%, Snowflake decreased 0.08%, BullFrog AI dropped 4.05%, C3.ai fell 3.96%, and Palantir increased by 1.69%. CrowdStrike rose 0.17%, but briefly fell over 4.2% after hours. Oracle increased 1.27%.

• Most China concept stocks fell. The nasdaq golden dragon china index decreased by 0.84%. Among ETFs, the china internet index ETF (KWEB) dropped 0.13%, the china technology index ETF (CQQQ) fell 1.15%, the FTSE china 3x long ETF (YINN) dropped 1.83%, and the FTSE china 3x short ETF (YANG) rose 1.7%. The FTSE A50 futures index fell 0.19% in continuous night trading, closing at 13000.000 points.

• Among popular china concept stocks, NIO fell 7.71%, Xiaomi Group ADR decreased 5.06%, Zeekr dropped 4.28%, Vipshop fell 2.95%, Li Auto decreased 2.72%, Trip.com dropped 2.53%, Tiger Brokers fell 2.31%, Zhihu decreased 2.17%, posting Q3 revenue of 0.845 billion yuan, with a net loss down 96.8% year-on-year. XPeng Motors dropped 1.98%, fangdd network fell 1.86%, Bilibili decreased 1.74%, PDD Holdings dropped 1.37%, Daqo New Energy fell 0.88%, Tencent ADR decreased 0.67%. Reports indicate that Tencent is planning to issue bonds overseas, marking its first return to the offshore debt market since 2021. Alibaba fell 0.47%, New Oriental decreased 0.36%, while Netease rose 0.95%, and Baidu increased 1.02%. Miniso rose 2.96%.

• Bitcoin futures briefly challenged the $0.09 million threshold, and crypto concept stocks broadly fell. Canaan dropped 13.46%, crypto exchange giant Coinbase fell 6.06%, and the short-seller targeted 'Bitcoin whale' MicroStrategy dropped 12.33%, while the crypto 'meme stock' Ideanomics rose 25%, and Mercurity Fintech ADR increased 23.56%.

• Solar stocks saw widespread losses, as Trump reignited concerns among investors. Array fell 5.13%, Sunrun dropped 0.26%, Canadian Solar ADR decreased 4.9%, Enphase Energy fell 1.96%, JinkoSolar ADR declined 3.02%, SolarEdge dropped 0.58%, and Maxeon Solar (MAXN) fell 4.01%, with the company selling off overseas business and planning to begin producing solar panels in the USA.

• Among other key stocks: (1) Japanese Prime Minister Kishida sent a letter to Biden requesting approval of Japan Steel's acquisition of United States Steel, which initially saw its stock price drop nearly 0.8% before rising 2.72%. (2) Best Buy fell 4.89%, as its third-quarter adjusted EPS fell below market expectations. (3) Kohl's Corp dropped 17.01%, as the company revised its full-year same-store sales forecast downwards. (4) Reports indicate Biden proposed to extend Medicare and Medicaid coverage to weight-loss drugs, with Eli Lilly increasing 4.55% and Novo-Nordisk rising 1.5%. (5) HP Inc's earnings outlook was poor, causing it to briefly drop over 12% after hours, while Dell's revenue fell short of expectations, dropping over 9% after hours.

European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, ending a three-day rise. Due to the threat of tariffs from Trump, auto stocks fell by 1.7%:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.57%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 0.79%. The FTSE pan-European top 300 index fell by 0.56%.

• Among all components of the European STOXX 600 index, Daimler Trucks fell by 6.01%, auto manufacturers Stellantis dropped by 4.79%, and Volkswagen decreased by 2.38%.

• The Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 0.78%. The UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.40%. The German DAX 30 index fell by 0.56%. The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.87%. The Spanish IBEX 35 index fell by 0.8%. The Netherlands AEX index fell by 0.48%.

Earlier Trump’s tariff proposal, combined with the Fed's meeting minutes showing that Fed members support gradual rate cuts, pushed up long-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year treasury yield rebounding above 4.30%. The spread between French and German 10-year treasury yields reached the widest closing gap since 2012:

• U.S. Treasury: Near the end, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2.72 basis points to 4.3004%, trading within a range of 4.2712%-4.3218% during the day. At 23:33 Beijing time, it refreshed the daily high, stabilizing after the Fed meeting minutes were released at 03:00. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell by 1.45 basis points to 4.2540%, trading within a range of 4.2932%-4.2354%.

• JPMorgan forecasts that the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield is expected to decline slightly for most of next year, showing little change by the end of 2025 compared to current levels. As the growth rate of the u.s. economy slightly slows to around 2%, and the federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another 100 basis points by the end of 2025, the short-term u.s. treasury performance is anticipated to outperform the long-term next year.

• European bonds: At the end of the European market, the benchmark german 10-year treasury notes yield in the eurozone fell by 2.4 basis points, to 2.187%. The two-year german treasury yield dropped by 0.6 basis points, at 2.019%. The uk 10-year treasury notes yield increased by 0.9 basis points. The two-year british bonds yield rose by 1.1 basis points. The france 10-year treasury notes yield increased by 2.5 basis points. The italy 10-year treasury notes yield dropped by 0.9 basis points.

After trump's tariff proposal, the usd showed a v-shaped reversal on Tuesday and ultimately closed higher, with the dollar rising more than 2% against the mexican peso and reaching a four-year high against the canadian dollar. The yen briefly broke through 153 to a two-week high, while the offshore yuan saw the deepest drop of 260 points during the day, subsequently cutting the drop in half and rebounding above 7.26 yuan, bitcoin futures fell below 0.091 million dollars at one point.

• Dollar: The usd index DXY rose by 0.07%, to 106.889 points, initially turning negative in pre-market trading of u.s. stocks before rising back above 107. The increase narrowed after the release of the federal reserve's minutes. The bloomberg dollar index increased by 0.22%, to 1287.87 points, with an intraday trading range of 1283.26-1293.55 points.

• Non-us currencies: The euro fell by 0.06% against the dollar, at 1.0489, the british pound dropped by 0.01%, at 1.2568, while the dollar rose by 0.02% against the swiss franc, at 0.8865; Among commodity currencies, the australian dollar fell by 0.56% against the dollar, the new zealand dollar dropped by 0.24%, while the dollar increased by 0.50% against the canadian dollar. The swedish krona fell by 0.03% against the dollar, and the norwegian krone fell by 0.63% against the dollar.

• Yen: The yen rose by 0.71% against the dollar at the close, at 153.13 yen, with an intraday trading range of 154.49-152.99 yen.

• Offshore RMB (CNH): The offshore RMB (CNH) fell 110 points against the US dollar at the close, reporting 7.2578 yuan, trading overall in the range of 7.2443-7.2728 yuan during the day.

• Cryptos: The largest crypto by market cap, bitcoin futures closed down 3.61% at $91,520.00, trading in the range of $95,225.00-$90,785.00 during the day. The second-largest, ethereum, closed down 5.34% at $3,324.00, trading in the range of $3,479.00-$3,259.00 during the day.

Earlier, the Israeli military announced the start of "large-scale" airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, coupled with Russia's claim of preparing to retaliate for the attacks launched by Ukrainian forces using US-guided missiles. The situation in the Middle East escalated again, alongside OPEC+'s plans to discuss delaying production increases, pushing US oil and Brent oil to rise by about 2% at their peaks. Subsequently, Israel reached a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, putting pressure on oil prices to turn lower, with both oils dropping nearly 1.3% at their deepest. Auction contracts show that Russian natural gas will continue to supply Austria in December, and Dutch natural gas futures fell over 2%.

• US oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed down $0.17, a decline of nearly 0.25%, reporting $68.77 per barrel. US oil continued the earlier upward trend, with stocks rising nearly 2% to surpass $70.30 in early trading, then continually declining, with midday stocks falling nearly 1.3% to approach $68.

• Brent oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed down $0.20, a decline of more than 0.27%, reporting $72.81 per barrel. Brent oil continued the earlier upward trend, with stocks soaring over 1.8% to approach $74.40 in early trading, then continually declining, with midday stocks falling nearly 1.3% to fall below $72.10.

• On the news front, the American Petroleum Institute stated that maintaining the circulation of energy products at the borders of the USA, Mexico, and Canada is crucial. The majority of the 4 million barrels of crude oil that Canada exports daily is sold to the USA. Analysts say that Trump is unlikely to impose tariffs on Canadian oil because the grades of Canadian oil differ from those produced in the USA and cannot be easily replaced. The tariff announcement on Monday does not seem to have an immediate impact on the Canadian oil market.

• Natural gas: NYMEX December USA natural gas futures rose by 1.84%, closing at $3.4310 per million British thermal units. European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures fell by 2.40%, settling at €46.850 per megawatt hour. ICE UK natural gas futures declined by 1.74%, ending at 117.430 pence per kilocalorie.

Due to Israel agreeing to a ceasefire with Lebanon, safe-haven demand weakened, causing gold prices to drop to a one-week low during the session. However, concerns over Ukraine and the tariff plans of newly elected president Trump in the USA limited the decline. Futures and spot gold ultimately closed slightly higher, especially as the Fed's minutes supported a gradual rate cut, leading to a short-term stop in the decline and a rise in gold prices.

• Gold: COMEX gold futures rose by 0.54% at the close, settling at $2632.80 per ounce. Spot gold maintained an upward trend for most of the day, with pre-market trading in the US reaching over 0.6% to break through $2640, closing up by 0.28% at $2632.36 per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX silver futures rose by 0.91% at the close, reporting $30.515 per ounce. Spot silver maintained an upward trend for most of the day, with pre-market trading in the US peaking at nearly 1.3% approaching $30.70, and closing up by 0.45% at $30.4355 per ounce.

• The strengthening of the dollar has led to a widespread decline in London industrial metals: copper closed down $45 at $9000 per ton. COMEX copper futures fell by 0.96%, closing at $4.0605 per pound. London zinc rose by $56, increasing over 1.85%, ending at $3076 per ton. London aluminum dropped by $40, falling nearly 1.51%, settling at $2612 per ton. London lead fell by $8, ending at $2021 per ton. London nickel decreased by $207, falling about 1.28%, closing at $15996 per ton. London tin dropped by $72, closing at $28904 per ton. London cobalt remained flat at $24300 per ton.

Editor / jayden