周一，特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上表示，Source: Wall Street See
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs stated that the proposal by the elected USA President Trump to impose a 25% tariff on commodities from Canada and Mexico, although expected to generate nearly 300 billion US dollars in revenue annually, may exacerbate inflation, leading to a 0.9% increase in USA core PCE inflation. Currently, it is still uncertain whether Trump's tariff proposal will be implemented, as some advisors believe this may be Trump's negotiation strategy rather than final policy.
Goldman Sachs says that the latest tariff proposal by the newly elected US President Trump may bring upward pressure on the country's inflation.
On Monday, Trump stated on the social media platform Truth Social that he will impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico.
On Tuesday, November 26th, US Eastern Time, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius pointed out in a report that this proposal will significantly push up consumer prices in the USA. Hatzius explained:
"Based on our experience, for every 1 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index), will rise by 0.1%. Based on this estimate, if these tariff proposal increases are implemented, core PCE inflation will rise by 0.9%.
According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, the countries that Trump claims will have increased tariffs account for 43% of the total US import of goods, and these tariffs will bring in less than $300 billion in revenue each year.
Previously, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed will consider the impact of these factors on the trend of inflation once the specific details of tariffs and other fiscal policy changes are clarified. Currently, US inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the new tariff proposal may further widen this gap, disrupting the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts. Traders have already begun reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
However, it is still uncertain whether the tariffs will actually be implemented according to the levels proposed by Trump. On one hand, Trump has linked these tariff proposals to other policy reforms. Trump stated on social media that one of the conditions for implementing these tariffs is a change in immigration policy and drug enforcement. On the other hand, some of Trump's advisors and supporters believe that the tariffs he proposed during the campaign are not final policies, but rather a negotiating strategy.
Looking ahead, US PCE data for October will be released on Wednesday, with the expected data showing a 2.8% year-on-year growth in core PCE.
Editor / jayden
