Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guosen issued a research report stating it maintains the "outperforming market" rating for ke holdings-W (02423) and retains the previous profit forecast, expecting the company's adjusted net income for 2024-2025 to be 9/9.2 billion yuan, with eps of 2.50/2.54 yuan respectively. Due to the influence of policy rhythm, the company's Q3 revenue and profit fell quarter-on-quarter, but a significant rebound is anticipated in Q4.

Guosen Securities' main points are as follows:

Q3 revenue grew year-on-year but declined quarter-on-quarter, and profit fell both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

On the revenue side, in 2024 Q3, the company achieved a total GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, +12% year-on-year, -12% quarter-on-quarter; operating revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, +27% year-on-year, -3% quarter-on-quarter. On the profit side, in 2024 Q3, the company achieved an adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan, -17% year-on-year, -34% quarter-on-quarter; adjusted net margin was 7.9%, gross margin was 23%, both fell year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.

The existing house business performance is consistent with the rhythm of real estate policies, experiencing a quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but a significant rebound is anticipated in Q4.

In 2024 Q3, the GTV for the company's existing house business was 477.8 billion yuan, +9% year-on-year, -16% quarter-on-quarter; revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, -1% year-on-year, -15% quarter-on-quarter. In 2024 Q2, the monetization rate for the existing house business was 1.30%, a year-on-year decline partly due to structural factors, as the proportion of Lianjia's transaction volume decreased. Additionally, starting from September 2023, Lianjia lowered the commission rates for existing houses in peking, which will reduce the base effect going forward; the existing house business contributed a profit margin of 41.0%, which decreased quarter-on-quarter mainly due to increased fixed salary costs arising from the growth in the number of Lianjia agents and improved employee benefits.

The market share and monetization rate of the new house business continue to improve.

In Q3 2024, the company's new housing business achieved a total GTV trade amount of 227.6 billion yuan, an increase of 18% year-on-year and a decrease of 3% compared to the previous quarter. The GTV market share is 12.0%, a further increase of 1.7 percentage points from Q2; the new housing business revenue was 7.7 billion yuan, an increase of 31% year-on-year and a decrease of 3% quarter-on-quarter. In Q3 2024, the company's new housing monetization rate reached 3.39%, setting a new historical high; the profit margin contributed is 24.8%, slightly decreasing compared to the previous quarter.

The new track business maintains a good growth momentum.

In Q3 2024, the GTV proportion of the new track business increased to 4%, and the revenue proportion increased to 38%. Among them, the home decoration and furnishing business revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, an increase of 33% year-on-year and an increase of 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a monetization rate of 103% and a profit margin contribution of 31%; the house rental services revenue was 3.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118% year-on-year and an increase of 24% quarter-on-quarter, with a profit margin contribution of 4.4%.

Risk warning: If economic growth slows, residents' income expectations decline, policy relaxation falls short of expectations, housing enterprise credit risks impact the industry, the company's operations will be adversely affected.