According to the General Administration of Customs data, in October 2024, China's power inverter export amount was 4.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year/hierarchical growth of +17%/-4% respectively, a slight decrease sequentially, but a significant increase year-on-year.
China's Power inverter export amount was 4.7 billion yuan in October 2024, according to the General Administration of Customs data, with a year-on-year/hierarchical growth of +17%/-4% respectively, a slight decrease sequentially, but a significant increase year-on-year. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Europe/Asia/Latin America were 1.88/1.4/0.61 billion yuan respectively, with a sequential decline of -10%/-20%/+57%. The performance of the European and Asian markets was relatively weak on a sequential basis, while the Latin American market showed strong growth. In addition, a new law in Brazil is under review, which will allow employees to use the balance of the "employment tenure guarantee fund" to purchase photovoltaic systems. If the bill is passed smoothly, it is expected to greatly promote the demand for power inverters.
The main points of Ping An Securities are as follows:
Power inverter export amount in October increased year-on-year and decreased slightly sequentially.
According to the General Administration of Customs data, in October 2024, China's power inverter export amount was 4.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year/hierarchical growth of +17%/-4% respectively, a slight decrease sequentially, but a significant increase year-on-year. From January to October, China's power inverter export amount totaled 49.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. From January to October 2024, Europe, Asia, and Latin America were the top three export markets for power inverters in China, accounting for 41%/33%/13% of the export amount. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Europe/Asia/Latin America were 1.88/1.4/0.61 billion yuan respectively, with a sequential decline of -10%/-20%/+57%. The European and Asian markets showed relatively weak sequential performance, while the Latin American market showed strong growth.
Asia: India's demand is picking up, with significant growth in large-scale machinery in the Middle East.
From January to October 2024, China's power inverter exports to the Asian market amounted to 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%; the export amount in October was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year/hierarchical decrease of -4%/-20%. From January to October, India and Pakistan in South Asia, as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Middle East, were the top four regions for China's power inverter exports to Asia (excluding Hong Kong, China), with the total export amount accounting for 49% of China's exports to Asia from January to October. In terms of monthly exports, there was a sequential increase in India in October, a sequential decrease in Pakistan, and significant fluctuations in Saudi Arabia each month.
In October, China's exports of power inverters to India amounted to 0.24 billion yuan (+34% month-on-month), with shipments expected to recover after the rainy season; exports of power inverters to Pakistan amounted to 0.11 billion yuan (-42% month-on-month), possibly due to Pakistan authorities announcing control over electricity prices at the end of September, leading to a wait-and-see sentiment. The export amount of power inverters to Saudi Arabia was 0.2 billion yuan (+306% month-on-month), with large monthly fluctuations mainly due to the predominance of large machines in Saudi installations, resulting in uneven shipments.
European market: The German market slightly decreased month-on-month, while demand in Ukraine remained strong.
From January to October 2024, China's exports of power inverters to Europe amounted to 20.3 billion yuan, a 44% year-on-year decrease; among them, the export amount in October was 1.88 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of +18%/-10% respectively. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Germany amounted to 0.29 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of -24%/-10%, showing continuous declines in October after a high increase in August. The significant month-on-month increase in August export amount was mainly driven by price hikes; although average prices fell in September and October compared to August, they remained higher than in previous months, possibly indicating a change in product structure with an increased share of energy storage products.
From July to October, China's exports of power inverters to Ukraine showed significant year-on-year growth, with demand remaining strong. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Ukraine amounted to 0.05 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of +181%/-18%; the number of units exported was 0.02 million (down 60% month-on-month), with an average unit price of 2525 yuan (up 105% month-on-month), indicating a significant increase in the average unit price of exported power inverters, possibly due to an increase in the share of energy storage products in the product structure.
Latin America and Africa markets: Both showed improvement in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons in October.
From January to October 2024, China's exports of power inverters to Latin America amounted to 6.33 billion yuan, a 32% year-on-year growth. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Latin America amounted to 0.61 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of +58%/+57%. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Brazil amounted to 0.34 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of +49%/+79%, showing significant growth in export amount with the arrival of spring. There is expected to be a continuous month-on-month growth in exports from October to November, as a new bill in Brazil is under review that will allow employees to use the balance of the "employment longevity guarantee fund" to purchase photovoltaic systems, which, if passed successfully, is expected to greatly boost the demand for power inverters.
From January to October 2024, China's exports of power inverters to Africa amounted to 3.06 billion yuan, a 32% year-on-year decrease. In October, China's exports of power inverters to Africa amounted to 0.33 billion yuan, with month-on-month and year-on-year changes of +69%/+8%. In October, seasonal factors led to a warming in the export amount of power inverters to South Africa in both month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons; while exports to Nigeria saw a slight decrease month-on-month, they still showed year-on-year growth.
Investment recommendation: Export demand shows short-term volatility, with emerging markets outperforming traditional markets. Leading enterprises in various segments of the power inverter industry are recommended.
Recommended symbols: Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), which leads in the offshore storage process and has won large orders from the Middle East and Europe; Deeya Stock (605117.SH), which deeply cultivates the emerging markets of household storage with strong strength. Suggested focus: Sineng Electric (300827.SZ), which is laying out in emerging markets and progressing smoothly in offshore storage; Hemai Stock (688032.SH), the leader in domestic micro-inverter, with promising performance in Europe and Latin America.
Risk warning: risks of demand growth in various markets falling short of expectations, risks of intensified global market competition, risks of tightening market restriction policies.
