消息面上，美国国家安全委员会战略沟通协调员约翰·柯比表示，黎以停火协议“接近”达成，双方就停火协议不同意见间的差距已经“大大缩小”，但仍需采取一些措施以促进其达成。How much impact do continuous geopolitical risks, such as tariffs, have on the shipping sector? Which stocks in the Hong Kong stock shipping sector are showing signs of weakening?
As of press time, leading stocks like cosco shipping holdings (01919.HK) fell nearly 4%, china mer port (00144.HK) dropped over 2%, ooil (00316.HK), cosco ship engy (01138.HK), and other stocks followed suit in decline.
Financial Association reported on November 26th (Editor Yi Feng), today the Hong Kong stock shipping sector weakened under the influence of multiple factors.
On the news front, John Kirby, the Strategic Communications Coordinator of the USA National Security Council, stated that the Israel-Palestine ceasefire agreement is "close" to being reached. The differences between the two sides on the ceasefire agreement have been "significantly narrowed", but some measures are still needed to facilitate its achievement.
Affected by the above news, short-term market expectations for the Red Sea to resume navigation have heated up. Today, the shipping index (European line) main contract fell over 11% intraday, closing down nearly 9%, hitting a new monthly low.
In addition, the expectations for freight rates in the shipping industry in December have cooled slightly. According to a report by analysts Gao Cong and Cai Shaoli from Huatai Futures on November 26th, major shipping companies have continuously adjusted their shipment prices for the first half of December. Maersk lowered quotes to 2800/5200, and YML's latest quotes for the first half of December were adjusted to $5400/FEU.
Previously, most shipping companies had raised prices to around $6000, but overall, the recent trend of declining freight rates is becoming clearer.
On the other hand, recent changes in import and export trade policies, as well as increased risk factors, have also intensified the expected volatility in the shipping sector.
On November 15, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Export Rebate Policy," cancelling the export tax rebates for 59 products including aluminum, copper, and chemically modified animal or vegetable oils and fats; and adjusting the export tax rebates for 209 products including some finished oils, photovoltaics, batteries, and some non-metallic mineral products.
This week, US President-elect Trump announced that all products entering the United States from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff. In addition, Trump also announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.
Overall, changes in domestic and foreign trade policies may lead to early surges in shipping demand, resulting in a pattern where freight rates show near-term strength but long-term weakness.
Analysts Lu Xiaoyao and Li Dan from Zheshang Securities pointed out in a strategic report on November 25 that since the beginning of the year, the trend of shipping indices has been relatively consistent with the geopolitics risk index. Subsequent attention needs to be paid to the impact of the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on demand.
Huatai Futures also stated that, in general, with expected support, there is still an expectation of rising freight futures prices in the near term. However, in the recent period, due to repeated geopolitical news and the possibility of the Suez Canal reopening after Trump's election, market expectations may fluctuate.
