据了解，罗素2000指数已达到2021年11月的峰值，其突破这一阻力的能力对整个市场周期具有重要意义。罗素2000指数与标普500指数的比率已升至200天平均水平以上，这对小型股是一个积极的信号。分析师建议选择小盘股，因为随着牛市周期进入第三年，大盘股的吸引力可能会减弱。Oppenheimer recommends the Invesco Small-Cap ETF and suggests buying four small-cap stocks including Archrock, azz inc, griffon, and palomar holdings.
According to Zhitong Financial APP, Oppenheimer's analyst recommends that investors pay attention to the Invesco Small-Cap Momentum ETF (XSMO.US), believing it will outperform the e-mini russell 2000 index (IWM.US), and suggests buying four small-cap stocks including Archrock Inc. (AROC.US), azz inc. (AZZ.US), griffon (GFF.US), and palomar holdings (PLMR.US).
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, pointed out in a report that the Invesco Small-Cap Momentum ETF is one of the few small-cap benchmark indices that broke through its 2021 peak in July and further increased after the election.
It is understood that the e-mini russell 2000 index has reached its peak in November 2021, and its ability to break this resistance is significant for the entire market cycle. The ratio of the e-mini russell 2000 index to the s&p 500 index has risen above its 200-day average, which is a positive signal for small caps. Analysts recommend selecting small caps, as the appeal of large caps may weaken as the bull market cycle enters its third year.
Moreover, the three-year rate of change of the e-mini russell 2000 index is entering positive territory after going through one of the worst-performing periods in history, a change that has only occurred historically in 1990, 2003, 2009, and 2020.
Wald believes that the low readings indicate a lack of bubbles in the current market, which is also why they think the upcoming downward cycle from the current levels is more likely to be a slight pullback in a long-term bull market.
The e-mini russell 2000 index has risen 45% since its low in June 2022, and this momentum indicator is expected to reach its peak in the second half of 2025. Over the past 90 years, there have been 22 cycles alternating between small caps and large caps, with small caps generating higher returns in major cycles, a phenomenon known as small-cap premium.
Wald pointed out that the current large cap stock cycle began in 2021 and is part of a larger cycle favorable to large cap stocks since 2013. Therefore, Oppenheimer's analysts believe it is now time to focus on and invest in small cap stocks to capture this market trend.