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特朗普打响关税“第一枪”,分析师全面解读市场反应

Trump fired the "first shot" with tariffs, and analysts provide a comprehensive interpretation of the market reaction.

Golden10 Data ·  14:00

Traders are reassessing their positions, and the market may continue to be under pressure.

The elected US President Trump announced that he will impose trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and raise tariffs on China. Traders are reevaluating their positions, and the market may continue to be under pressure.

Market experts say that Asian currencies such as the South Korean won and the Thai baht are seen as representatives of sentiment and are likely to perform poorly. They say that the stock markets of Mexico and Canada will also fall, especially for companies with large exports to the US.

Here are the views of Asian analysts and strategists:

Senior Interest Rate Strategist Andrew Ticehurst from Nomura in Sydney:

"Tariff rhetoric has sparked concerns about global inflation, causing concerns about global growth, and adding to geopolitical uncertainty. The market's knee-jerk reaction is a stronger US dollar, rising yields, and weaker stock markets.

Trump seems to have targeted Canada and Mexico for his tariff hikes, which is surprising, especially considering the existing trade agreement (USMCA) between these three countries.

Our US team notes that Trump may use emergency powers to try to push for tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, but we believe that if Trump continues to do so, it is likely to face legal challenges.

Strong US dollar

Currency strategist Carol Kong based in Sydney for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia:

"The market remains cautious about more tariff headlines, the uncertainty of US trade policy will keep the market heavy, therefore, it is expected that the Australian dollar and other currencies will continue to decline at least. Trump's threat to impose more tariffs will once again strengthen the US dollar. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are expected to be influenced negatively."

Mahjabeen Zaman, Head of Foreign Exchange Research at ANZ Bank Group in Sydney:

"We may see the US dollar temporarily stay strong as the market digests this news in the short term. However, we cannot completely rule out the seasonal factors at the end of the year that may slightly weaken the US dollar's rising trend. But the overall tendency is still bullish on the US dollar, although I believe the current price is already high."

Asian forex markets are expected to perform poorly

Macroeconomic strategist Kiyong Seong from Societe Generale in Hong Kong:

"We believe that even if the US government gradually increases tariff rates and coverage, the market tends to front-load future tariff measures. We still think that based on different tariff levels, emerging market currencies will be impacted differently."

Singapore's the toronto-dominion bank's macro strategist Alex Loo:

"The initial impact of Trump's statement is bullish on the USD, reflecting the effects of global trade tensions and related tariff concerns. Given the disrupted outlook, we can expect poor performance from Asian currencies, especially the South Korean won, the Taiwan dollar, and the singapore dollar, as their economies are trade-oriented."

Singapore's barclays bank's head of Asia forex and emerging markets macro strategy, Mitul Kotecha:

"Emerging markets and Asian currencies, especially those related to trade, were hit by President Trump's tariff comments this morning, which may lead to a short-term decline. This will evidently increase pressure on the related currencies. Sensitive currencies like the South Korean won, the Taiwan dollar, and the Thai baht are particularly at risk."

Global macro investment portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA, Rajeev de Mello:

"This suggests that tariffs will be the preferred means of implementing foreign policy. As the announcement came earlier than expected, I expect the related stock markets to come under further pressure. The elected president may not even have to wait for the inauguration ceremony to start fulfilling his campaign promises."

Lynn Song, Chief Economist of Greater China at ING Bank in Hong Kong:

"The direct impact may have a negative effect on currencies and stocks in countries like Mexico and Canada. Companies with significant exposure to U.S. markets will be disproportionately affected. The motive behind this round of tariffs is the import of fentanyl, with the aim of getting Mexico to help stop the importation of fentanyl. This indicates that there is still room for negotiation on tariff issues, and in our view, the likelihood of immediate imposition of a 60% comprehensive tariff on China is low."

NATIXIS Senior Economist GARY NG:

"This is undoubtedly a blow to the market, putting pressure on Chinese assets, especially the export industry, because these additional tariffs will bring pressure on corporate profits. However, compared to the measures imposed on Canada and Mexico, the magnitude is not significant, so investors may still want to see what the follow-up measures are, and when/if the promised 60% tariff measures will actually be implemented."

SHANGHAI Pan Yao Asset Management Co., Ltd. Deputy General Manager SIMON YU:

"Tariffs are Trump's bargaining chip in negotiations with other countries. Referring to Trump 1.0, China already has a template to deal with tariffs. As for other restrictive measures, such as technology-related sanctions, China may accelerate the process of self-reliance and import substitution."

Wellington BNZ Senior Market Strategist JASON WONG:

"It feels like time has gone back to 2016, and the market is responding to tweets again. It will take some time, this is the new normal. You can draw conclusions hastily, but I won't draw conclusions hastily now. The market needs to calm down. You can't interpret these things too much."

Singapore Toronto-Dominion Securities Forex and Macro Strategy Analyst Alex Loo:

"Although technically the USMCA agreement will not be renegotiated until 2026, Trump is likely looking to start the renewal process with Canada and Mexico earlier through the tariff measures announced today. While the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar have weakened in response, one of the reasons for the significant volatility in Asian markets this morning may be the scarcity of liquidity outside the North American time zone."

ITC's senior forex analyst SEAN CALLOW:

"Just last month, Trump also said 'the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff', so Trump's intentions should not come as a surprise, it's just the timing of the comments that's different. The decline of trade-sensitive currencies makes sense, given the calm on the schedule, it should continue in the short term, but once we get closer to the December FOMC meeting, the Fed's policy should become the focus again."

IG market analyst TONY SYCAMORE:

"I just want to coordinate it with Bert's appointment. People have been expecting him to sound more moderate. Perhaps this is also a reaction, everyone thought that Bert would temper some of the more extreme trade policies... but Trump will not be moderated by anyone. He once said tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods... So, if we are only talking about an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods based on existing tariffs, that would be much less than what he previously stated... So it could actually be lower than the worst-case scenario we are seeing."

Brisbane CITY INDEX senior market analyst MATT SIMPSON:

"After nominating Bert as Treasury Secretary, Trump almost wanted to remind the market who the controller is. But as the Canadian dollar strengthens against the Mexican peso, the market believes this will have the most severe impact on Mexico."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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