新赛道业务保持良好的增速势头。2024Q3，新赛道业务GTV 占比提升至4%，收入占比提升至38%。其中，家装家居业务收入42 亿元，同比+33%，环比+4%，货币化率103%，贡献利润率31%；房屋租赁服务收入39 亿元，同比+118%，环比+24%，贡献利润率4.4%。Q3 Revenue growth declined month-on-month, while profit declined month-on-month. On the revenue side, 2024Q3, the company achieved total GTV transactions of 736.8 billion yuan, +12% year over month, and operating revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, +27% year over month, and -3% month on month. On the profit side, 2024Q3, the company achieved adjusted net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, -17% YoY and -34% month-on-month; adjusted net profit margin of 7.9% and gross profit margin of 23%, all falling YoY.
Stock housing business performance is in line with the pace of real estate policy. Q3 declined month-on-month in Q2, but it is anticipated that Q4 will pick up significantly. 2024Q3, the company's stock housing business GTV was 477.8 billion yuan, +9% year over month, -16% month over month; revenue 6.2 billion yuan, -1% year over month, -15% month on month. 2024Q2, the monetization rate of the company's stock housing business was 1.30%. On the one hand, the year-on-year decline was due to structural factors, and on the other hand, Chainjia lowered the stock housing commission rate in Beijing in September 2023, and the base effect will subside; the profit margin contributed by the stock housing business was 41.0%, which decreased month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in the number of Chainjia agents and improved employee benefits.
The market share and monetization rate of the new housing business continue to rise. 2024Q3, the company's new housing business achieved a total GTV transaction value of 227.6 billion yuan, +18, -3% month-on-month, GTV market share 12.0%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over Q2; revenue from the new housing business was 7.7 billion yuan, +31% year-on-month, and -3% month-on-month. 2024Q3, the company's monetization rate for new homes was 3.39%, another record high; contributing profit margin 24.8%, a slight decrease from month to month.
The new racetrack business maintained a good growth momentum. 2024Q3, the share of GTV in the new track business increased to 4%, and the share of revenue increased to 38%. Among them, the home improvement and home furnishing business revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, +33% year over month, monetization rate 103%, contributing 31% profit margin; housing rental service revenue was 3.9 billion yuan, +118% year over year, +24% month-on-month, contributing 4.4% profit margin.
Investment advice: Affected by the pace of the policy, the company's revenue and profit declined sequentially in the third quarter, but it is expected that the fourth quarter will pick up significantly. We maintain our previous profit forecast. We expect the company's adjusted net profit for 2024-2025 to be 9/9.2 billion yuan, and earnings per share will be 2.50/2.54 yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the current PE share price, it is 18.3/18.0 times, respectively, and maintain the “superior to market” rating.
Risk warning: If the housing industry fluctuates due to factors such as a slowdown in economic growth, a decline in residents' income expectations, policy relaxation falling short of expectations, and the impact of credit risk incidents on housing enterprises, the company's operations will be adversely affected.
