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资深策略师:美股进入“黄金时代”,本十年末才见顶!

Senior strategist: The U.S. stock market has entered a "golden era," with the peak expected only at the end of this decade!

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 25 22:49

Analysts believe that the s&p 500 index will trade between 8,000 and 10,000 points by 2030, possibly reaching 13,000 points.

Mary Ann Bartels, a senior analyst at Sanctuary Wealth, stated that the US stocks may be entering a "golden age of investment," which could provide excessive returns for investors.

In her outlook for 2025, Bartels outlined why she believes the s&p 500 index could double from now until 2030.

Bartels stated, "We believe that fundamentally, this is driven by the productivity gains brought by ai and the robust growth of the usa economy, which benefits from maintaining lower corporate taxes, lower interest rates, and the ongoing stimulus from the Biden administration that allows companies to continue to achieve strong earnings growth."

According to Bartels, the current technological revolution in ai has astonishing similarities to the internet technological advancements of the 1990s, as well as the technological advancements in radio and autos of the 1920s, combined with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, indicating that the US stocks may follow a path similar to that of the 1990s or the 1920s.

Bartels said, "If we are to repeat the prosperity-recession cycles similar to those of the 1920s, 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, we believe we are in the early stage of prosperity, and the stock market will not peak until 2029-2030."

Bartels expects the s&p 500 index to trade between 8000 and 10000 points by 2030. However, she added that the s&p 500 index could reach 13000 points, which represents a 118% increase from current levels.

Bartels stated, "If our predictions are correct, this will be the second golden age of investment in 50 years."

Sanctuary Wealth's year-end price target range for the s&p 500 index in 2025 is between 7200 and 7400 points, making it the most optimistic prediction on Wall Street to date. This would mean that after a strong rise in 2023 and 2024, the s&p 500 index will rise again by 20% in 2025.

Supporting Bartels' bullish view on stocks is the fact that, measured by the 5-year P/E Z-score (a commonly used method of data standardization), the market valuation is not approaching extreme levels, and both profit margins and corporate earnings growth are on the rise.

Bartels stated, "For 2025, we expect corporate earnings to continue to expand, especially among technology-related companies, so we believe that valuations will not limit stock price increases."

According to Bartels, another factor bullish for the future of the usa stock market is the continued accumulation of 'large amounts of cash.'

Bartels emphasized that nearly 7 trillion dollars is held in money market funds, which can serve as a source of purchasing power for stocks.

Bartels said, "Investors are not fully committed," and that the margin debt in the stock market does not show that investors have fully bet on stocks.

Bartels mentioned, "We believe that this cash needs to be deployed, and leverage needs to increase. If our predictions are correct, this will push stock prices to levels that are virtually unimaginable today."

She said, "In our view, this is indeed the golden age of investing."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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