首先关税方面，Beacon Policy Advisors管理合伙人Stephen Myrow表示，贝森特在金融市场的信誉可以帮助政府说服投资者增加关税，即使这些成本会被转嫁出去。关税将对消费者带来成本，问题在于成本是多少。Analysis shows that, in terms of tax policies, attention is focused on Bezent's testimony at the hearing; Bezent's remarks have little impact on interest rates, the key is how much the White House can leverage Bezent's reputation to prevent bond market fluctuations, Bezent may use 'unconventional' measures regarding the US debt ceiling issue. In addition, he will also play an important role in cryptocurrency regulation.
Trump nominated Besant as Secretary of the Treasury. What does this new CFO mean for the usa economy?
If Besant is successfully elected, with Trump's tariff plans, major tax legislation, and yet another debt ceiling approaching in 2025, Besant will become a key economic spokesperson. Morningstar's senior us economist Preston Caldwell stated that the indirect power of the Secretary of the Treasury to influence fiscal and economic policy may be more important than his direct power.
First, regarding tariffs, Beacon Policy Advisors managing partner Stephen Myrow mentioned that Besant's credibility in the financial markets could help the government persuade investors to raise tariffs, even if these costs would be passed on. Tariffs will increase costs for consumers, and the question is how much these costs will be.
Secondly, for Besant and Trump, a bigger question is how much they are prepared to allow the current national debt of 36 trillion dollars to increase. Investors view Besant as a "fiscal hawk," having previously warned against excessively expanding the budget deficit.
Moreover, Besant will play an important role in many areas, including interest rate adjustments and cryptos.
Tax Cuts: Focus on Besant's statements at the hearing.
Starting with taxes, Besant will take over this position next year, as Trump's 2017 tax cut legislation is set to expire. According to the usa Tax Foundation, by 2026, this legislation will entirely lapse, with 62% of households facing tax increases. The Congressional Budget Office stated that directly extending the current legislation could increase the deficit by more than 4 trillion dollars.
The new tax law will depend on Congress and Trump, but Idaho Republican Senator and soon-to-be Chair of the Senate Finance Committee Mike Crapo has stated that Becerra will become the "key economic negotiator" for the White House, and he looks forward to the confirmation hearings. Specific tax policies may only be clear after the hearings to understand Becerra's thoughts.
Little impact on interest rates.
On the issue of consumer lending costs, Becerra will remain cautious, but analysts say his ability to act is limited.
Cris DeRitis, Deputy Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate sets a benchmark for short-term rates, including the variable annual rate on credit cards. However, he noted that U.S. Treasury yields set the benchmark for long-term crediting such as mortgages, auto loans, and federal student loans. They also influence the rates of long-term certificates of deposit (CDs) paid by banks.
Since mid-September, U.S. Treasury yields have been rising, and although the Federal Reserve has started to lower the benchmark rate, mortgage rates are beginning to approach 7%. Investors are concerned about inflation that may be brought on by Trump's tariffs, further tax cuts, and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
DeRitis stated that Becerra's means of adjusting rates is through altering the mix of short-term and long-term debt used to offset the federal deficit. However, this is a tricky supply and demand issue within the enormous $27 trillion federal debt market.
Caldwell noted that by adjusting the maturity mix of issued bonds, Becerra could theoretically change the shape of the yield curve. However, this might have little effect, as the Federal Reserve could easily offset it by adjusting its long-term asset portfolio if willing, given that the Federal Reserve is also the main buyer and seller of U.S. Treasury securities.
Previously, Becerra criticized current Treasury Secretary Yellen for distorting the Treasury securities market by borrowing over $1 trillion in more expensive short-term debt than historical standards.
Analysis suggests that the question is to what extent the Trump administration can leverage Besant's credibility to prevent adverse reactions in the bonds market, and Besant's background slightly reduces this risk.
Unconventional measures play an important role in addressing the USA debt ceiling and regulating cryptos.
In addition, there is also the issue of the USA debt ceiling. Veda Partners Managing Partner Henrietta Treyz expects the debt ceiling to be raised again around July next year, and the Republican plan may be to link the raising of the debt ceiling with the passage of tax legislation.
Treyz stated that if these issues are interconnected, Besant and the Treasury may need to take unconventional measures to buy some time for lawmakers to postpone the default date. DeRitis mentioned that unconventional measures essentially allow the Treasury to strategically ease certain expenditures to slow the government's approach to the borrowing limit.
As cryptos become increasingly significant, Besant will also play an important role in industry regulation.
Andrew O'Neill, Managing Director of S&P Global Ratings for digital assets, stated that the new Secretary of the Treasury, as the architect of government financial regulation policy, may be of help to crypto companies, which could be particularly important for stablecoins or cryptos pegged to the USA dollar.
