Jinguo Financial News | Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that NIO (09866) has limited new models launching in 2025, with only one new model being introduced. Additionally, management is focusing on a 2025 gross margin target guidance of 15%-20%. Goldman Sachs expects NIO's sales volume to grow by 5% in 2025, increasing from 0.201 million units in 2024 to 0.21 million units.

Furthermore, Onvo's (乐道) slow production growth will put the group at a disadvantage in 2025, and competition may intensify starting from the first quarter of next year. Additionally, as NIO continues to expand the Onvo brand's sales network, this firm expects the increase in marketing and R&D expenses will drag down operating losses, hindering the group's profitability in the next three years. With two new models launching in the second half of 2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts sales of 0.022 million units in 2024 and 0.118 million units in 2025.

Due to Onvo and Firefly brands having lower gross margins occupying nearly 40% of sales, Goldman Sachs predicts NIO's gross margin will be 13% in 2025. At the same time, operating losses will persist as marketing and R&D expenses increase. With continuous operating losses and capital expenditures, Goldman Sachs expects NIO to achieve positive operating cash flow in 2025 and positive free cash flow by 2029. The firm has revised down its net income forecasts for NIO from 2024-2026 by 2%-13% to reflect declining sales, gross margin, and rising operating expenses. The target price has been reduced from 38 HKD by 21.1% to 30 HKD, due to anticipated intensified competition in the first quarter of next year and increased marketing and R&D expenses, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Neutral" to "Sell."