The gold market has recently shown high volatility, mainly due to the geopolitical uncertainty brought about by Trump's imminent takeover. Analysts and strategists' views on the future of gold have also become increasingly contradictory, often resulting in conflicting conclusions even when analyzing the same factors.

In this article, one market analyst still believes that gold's long-term upward trend will continue until 2025. Another analyst, however, argues that the bullish sentiment for gold is showing signs of fatigue, and the outlook for silver is more optimistic.

WisdomTree's research director: Gold is expected to rise to 2850 in the fourth quarter of next year.

Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, stated that the continued expansion of the usa's debt, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting cycle, and the replacement of the dollar with gold as forex reserves will be bullish for gold.

Shah pointed out that several policies proposed by Trump, including extending the tax cut plan, may bring inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, lower tax rates will further increase government debt. He believes that although Trump's "America First" policy may provide some support for the dollar at the beginning of the year, this support is unlikely to be sustained as the government deficit continues to grow. Therefore, he expects the dollar to weaken by 2025, which will become an important driving force for pushing up gold prices.

"Debt will likely increase, which will put pressure on the dollar."

Meanwhile, Shah believes that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle should push down bond yields, which will also be another bullish factor supporting rising gold prices. In his latest research report, he wrote, "We are back in a rate-cutting environment, bond yields are falling, and investors are regaining interest in gold." Although bond yields are expected to decline, Shah believes that the Federal Reserve has limited room to cut rates next year, as he currently predicts that the rates will bottom out between 3.25% and 3.50%.

Despite Shah's bullish attitude towards gold, he also believes there is indeed an upper limit to the rise in gold prices next year. He expects that by the fourth quarter of next year, gold prices will remain around $2,850 per ounce. "This is still quite a positive situation for gold," he said,

"Initially, I predicted that the gold price could reach $3,000, but according to my latest model analysis, this would require a significant drop in bond yields from current levels."

In addition to the USA's monetary policy, Shah also believes that the trend of de-dollarization in the global financial markets will continue to support gold prices. Although central banks' purchases of gold may slow compared to recent years, Shah still expects central banks to continue to increase their gold reserves. Shah stated that buyers from china may re-enter the gold market.

"It's not a question of 'if', but 'when'. Frankly, I don't think they can wait for lower prices any longer because they might never come... Compared to other forex assets, china's gold reserves are still relatively low. If they do not want to be constrained by the economies of the other G7 countries, they need to increase their reserves."

Furthermore, Shah added that in the context of growing global uncertainty, gold will continue to be important.Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.。

Daimon Securities analyst: The bullish stance on gold shows signs of fatigue, while the prospects for silver are more optimistic.

TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali holds a completely different view on the outlook for gold. He stated that signs of fatigue among gold bulls suggest that gold prices may have peaked in the short term, while silver is more advantaged for further gains.

In a research report, Ghali pointed out that the recent decline in gold prices, particularly the sell-off caused by significant reductions in macro funds' positions, corresponds closely with historical patterns from the past decade when macro funds pulled back from extreme position levels, with an average pullback magnitude between 7% and 10%.

"However, the strong price performance since then has been rather atypical, accompanied by a decline in open contracts for gold on the New York Commodity Exchange," Ghali said. "After considering EFP (Exchange for Physicals, the exchange between futures contracts and physical commodities), there are currently virtually no directional fund managers with short positions, while gold ETFs in the west and china continue to reduce their holdings, and shanghai traders' trading behavior has changed significantly in recent weeks."

"We now expect the bids to soon become exhausted. The reported safe-haven demand due to Russia firing missiles has pushed gold prices higher, but this support may reverse in the short term."

Additionally, Ghali added that, from a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path has been significantly discounted and is no longer likely to lead to an overly accommodative monetary policy stance, meaning the macro funds' interest in gold is also unlikely to recover to extreme levels.

"The gold price trend has finally become strong enough to force CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) to re-enter the 'maximum bullish' position, which means that all of the trend signals we monitor are now pointing to bullish indicators, but this in turn will limit subsequent algorithmic bidding activity... Meanwhile, the 'TINA (there is no alternative)' trades in the chinese market are still reversing, indicating that demand from asia will not turn the situation around."

In contrast, Ghali believes that the liquidity configuration for silver is clearly more advantageous.