Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Nearby gold futures contracts experienced their largest single-day decline since November 2020, as news of a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah further weakened the safe-haven demand for gold, along with Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary.

Comex nearby gold futures fell by 3.4% to $2616.80 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in the dollar since November 9, 2020, and the largest percentage drop in a single day since June 17, 2021; ending a five-day upward trend in trading, yet gold prices have still risen by 27% this year. Comex nearby silver futures fell by 3.5% to $30.210 per ounce, the lowest settlement price since September 12.

Israeli and US officials said that the Israeli Security Cabinet would vote on a ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, with the cabinet expected to approve the agreement. Reportedly, the agreement on the negotiating table includes a 60-day implementation period, allowing for Israeli troops to withdraw; an international committee and UN peacekeepers will monitor compliance.

Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger wrote: 'The appointment of Scott Bessent has also led to a drop in gold prices... compared to some other nominees for Treasury Secretary, he could become a stabilizing force, and Bessent also could soften some of Trump's wish list, like tariffs.'

StoneX analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that with decreased safe-haven demand and the hawkish repricing of US rate cut expectations, the short-term outlook for gold has turned mildly bearish. However, in the longer term, gold could still rise to $3,000 per ounce, according to Razaqzada.

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven's team also pointed out in a research report titled 'Stay Selective, Hedge the Tails' released on the 17th that gold is the 'Top Trade' choice to cope with inflation and geopolitical risks, forecasting that gold prices will rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Structural drivers for the rise in gold prices come from central bank demand, cyclical drivers come from the Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the main downside risk comes from rising interest rates and a stronger US dollar.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's fund also stated in a document that after this round of adjustments, the upside potential of gold has once again opened up. If Trump's related policies truly land next year, there is a possibility of a second inflation or stagflation in the USA, both of which would support the continued upward trend in gold prices. A series of his policy slogans, including globally levying tariffs, reducing taxes domestically in the USA, and expelling immigrants, could lead to difficulties in reducing inflation in the USA. Concerns about the weakening of the US dollar credit in the long term have not been alleviated. Therefore, they remain bullish on the future upward potential of gold.

In addition, UBS Group expects that by the end of next year, the price of gold will rise to $2,900 per ounce. UBS analysts including Levi Spry and Lachlan Shaw stated in a report that due to concerns over a strong US dollar and the possibility of rising interest rates due to more fiscal stimulus in the USA, there may be a period of consolidation before precious metals begin to rise again.

Editor / jayden