#GoldTechnical analysis#24K99 News On Monday (November 25th), due to reports that Israel and Hezbollah are about to reach a ceasefire agreement, and Trump nominated Benson as the US Treasury Secretary, damaging the safe-haven appeal of gold, causing the gold price to plummet by over 3%.
Spot gold plunged $90.53 at Monday's close, down 3.33% to $2625.32 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since June 7th.
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that due to the development in the Middle East situation, gold prices experienced a sharp decline on Monday. Possible ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon created significant selling pressure on gold prices.
According to the report by the prominent U.S. website Axios on Monday, two Israeli senior officials and two U.S. officials told Axios that Israel and Lebanon are about to reach a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
According to reports, the ceasefire agreement draft includes a 60-day transition period, during which the Israeli army will withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army will be deployed in border areas, and Hezbollah will move heavy weapons north of the Litani River. The draft agreement includes a US-led supervisory committee responsible for monitoring the agreement's implementation and handling violations.
Valencia wrote that gold prices plummeted during the North American trading session on Monday as news of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel spread, intensifying demand for high-risk assets. This, coupled with Trump nominating Benson as the Treasury Secretary, has put pressure on gold. The price of gold dropped by over 3%.
Valencia stated that the improvement in risk appetite is a driving factor for the price of gold. Gold has fallen below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $2,664 per ounce, opening the door for further downward movement.
On November 22nd local time, U.S. President-elect Trump chose Bessent to be the U.S. Treasury Secretary, nominating one of his largest financial supporters to be the top economic official in his second government.
Trump called Bessent one of the 'world's most important international investors, as well as a geopolitical and economic strategist,' saying he is 'widely respected.' Trump stated, 'He will help me lead the United States into a new golden age, solidifying our position as the world's leading economic force, innovation and entrepreneurship center, capital destination, while undoubtedly always maintaining the status of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.'
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo expressed that some market participants believe that Bernette's negative impact on the trade war is relatively small.
Commodity strategy adviser Daniel Ghali of JPMorgan Securities stated that Trump appointing Bernette as Treasury Secretary further eliminates some of the risk premiums associated with the United States. More importantly, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon further pushes down the price of gold.
During periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty (such as conventional warfare or trade wars), gold has always been viewed as a safe investment.
Driven by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the price of gold surged over 6% last week.
Traders are also preparing for a crucial week, as this week will see the release of the minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, revised US GDP figures, and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator - the core PCE price data, which is expected to provide insights into the Fed's policy outlook.
JPMorgan Vice President and Senior Metal Strategy Analyst Peter Grant said: "I still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but as we approach 2025, recent Federal Reserve officials have become more cautious in tone, which may pose some resistance to gold."
How to trade gold?
FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that on Monday, as sellers pushed gold below $2,700 per ounce, the upward trend in gold stopped and fell below $2,630 per ounce.
According to Valencia, as gold bears break through $2,630 per ounce, the next level for gold is $2,600 per ounce.ResistanceIf the latter is breached, the price of gold may fall to the 100-day moving average of $2,562 per ounce, followed by the volatility low of $2,536 per ounce on November 14.
(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)
On the other hand, Valencia added that if buyers recover the 50-day moving average, they may challenge $2700 per ounce. Once broken, the next target will be $2750 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $2790 per ounce.
Valencia states that oscillators such asRelative Strength Index(RSIhave turned bearish, indicating that sellers are in control.