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特朗普的财政部长人选对全球市场意味着什么?

What does Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary mean for the global markets?

Golden10 Data ·  Nov 26 07:22

The second phase of the "Trump trade" may be about to begin...

On Monday, the financial markets welcomed President-elect Trump's nomination of Bensent as Secretary of the Treasury, with hopes that this hedge fund manager can alleviate the impact of some of Trump's more extreme economic views, leading to a rise in the global market.

The usd index fell below 107 on Monday; the euro performed the best against the usd, rising above 1.05. Other currencies such as the yen, british pound, and australian dollar also saw an increase against the usd.

These actions were a response from global investors to Trump's announcement last Friday night of his intention to nominate Bensent for one of the most influential positions in the US government. The Treasury is responsible for broad oversight of tax policy, public debt, and international finance.

Analysts believe that Bensent is a "safe choice", being a well-known market participant and a more moderate option compared to some of his competitors.

The 62-year-old Bensent is expected to promote a more moderate tariff policy under Trump, reduce regulations to foster growth, and aim to cut deficit spending.

Susannah Streeter, head of funds and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated in a research report: "Trump's choice for Secretary of the Treasury has further inflated investor sentiment, and Wall Street seems to be on the brink of a new surge."

She added, "Bensent's long market experience enhances confidence in the forthcoming pro-business policies and raises hopes that any tariffs will be highly targeted, along with lower core inflation expectations."

Implement tariffs in phases.

Trump's victory earlier this month heightened concerns about rising prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and mmf.

It is widely believed that Trump's promise of tax cuts and significant increases in tariffs could boost economic growth in the usa, but it may also expand the fiscal deficit and exacerbate inflation.

To increase revenue, Trump had suggested imposing a comprehensive 20% tariff on all goods imported into the usa, a tariff of up to 60% on products from china, and tariffs as high as 2000% on autos made in Mexico.

Although many economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs, Bassett defended tariffs as a 'useful tool for achieving presidential foreign policy objectives.' However, he also called for a 'phased' implementation of tariffs.

Analysts from Rabobank stated in a research report: 'Bassett being the preferred candidate for the usa Treasury Secretary increased the possibility that the 'Trump trade' could be overshadowed.'

They added, 'Bassett is a successful macro hedge fund manager who tends to reduce the usa budget deficit to 3% of GDP, which clearly indicates that he has a low appetite for deficit spending.'

Bassett previously worked for billionaire philanthropist and investor Soros, where he advocated for the so-called '3-3-3' goal, which aims to reduce the usa deficit to 3% by 2028, achieve 3% economic growth, and add 3 million barrels of oil production daily.

Everything remains the same.

Some strategists expect that Trump's choice for Secretary of the Treasury will be seen as bullish news for Asian mmf in the coming months.

Scott Spratt, a strategist at Société Générale and an investment bank, stated in a research report, "The market views Besant as a 'safe choice'."

He added, "We suspect he believes tariffs should be implemented 'in phases', and the initial levels being discussed are at a 'maximized' position, which should also boost Asian mmf."

Tesla CEO Musk believes that nominating Besant as Secretary of the Treasury would be disappointing. Musk described Besant in a social media post on X on November 16 as "a choice for everything to remain the same," adding that "everything remaining the same is dragging the USA down."

Besant is also an advocate for Trump's support of the cryptos industry, which means he could soon become the first Secretary of the Treasury to openly support cryptos.

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