Source: Wall Street See
Funds continue to flow out of technology and rotate into cyclical stocks, with the Dow rising over 400 points, the Russell small cap index briefly rising 2.5%, and the S&P narrowing its gains after reaching a new intraday high. Nvidia fell over 4% to its lowest in three weeks, Tesla dropped nearly 4%, NIO fell 3.6%, but Alibaba rose nearly 3%. The new Treasury Secretary nominee reassured the market, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, with the dollar briefly falling 1% from a two-year high. The situation in the Middle East has eased, causing gold to drop over 3% ending a five-day rise, oil prices fell about 3%, and Bitcoin dropped below $0.093 million as profits were taken.
On Monday, Wall Street celebrated the nomination of Basant, regarded as a fiscal conservative, for U.S. Treasury Secretary, believing he will help lower inflation. With the easing situation in the Middle East lifting risk sentiment, U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 small cap indices all reaching historical highs. This week’s trading hours will be shortened, with the market closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and an early closing on Friday.
The three major U.S. stock indices all rose. The S&P 500 index closed up 18.03 points, an increase of 0.30%, at 5987.37 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, closed up 440.06 points, an increase of 0.99%, at 44736.57 points, marking a historical closing high for the second consecutive trading day with a cumulative rebound of about 3.40% over the past four days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 51.18 points, an increase of 0.27%, closing at 19054.83 points. The Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.14%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, increased by 0.29%. The Russell 2000 small cap index, more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose 1.47%. The VIX panic index fell 4.20%, closing at 14.60.
U.S. sector ETFs saw broad gains. The global aviation industry ETF rose 1.99%, the banking sector ETF gained 1.83%, regional bank ETF, biotechnology index ETF, and consumer discretionary ETF all rose by more than 1.6%, the internet stocks index ETF rose by over 0.5%, the global technology stocks index ETF increased by over 0.2%, the technology sector ETF was about flat, while the semiconductor ETF fell by about 0.4% and the energy sector ETF dropped 1.97%.
All 11 sectors of the S&P rose. The energy sector fell 2.01%, the information technology/technology sector dropped 0.35%, the utilities sector rose 0.20%, the consumer staples sector increased 0.37%, the financial sector gained 0.61%, the industrial sector increased 0.66%, the telecommunications sector rose 0.76%, the medical care sector grew 0.90%, the materials sector increased 0.94%, the consumer discretionary sector rose 0.99%, and the real estate sector gained 1.28%.
Most of the "seven technology sisters" rose. Nvidia dropped by 4.18%, and Tesla fell by 3.96%. UBS group dampened expectations, stating that Tesla's market cap surge is due to "animal spirits" rather than fundamental improvements, and that California does not consider including Tesla in its electric vehicle tax credit program. Google A rose by 1.75%. Meta rose by 1.07%. Amazon rose by 2.2%, reporting that Amazon is developing a new AI chip, Trainium2, aimed at challenging Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip sector. This chip has four times the performance of the previous generation, with triple the memory capacity, showing significant improvements in both energy efficiency and cost. Apple rose by 1.31%. Microsoft rose by 0.43%.
Most chips stocks rose. The Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 0.65%, while the industry ETF SOXX rose by 0.98%. Nvidia's double leveraged ETF dropped by 8.41%. Wolfspeed increased by 17.77%, Qualcomm rose by 1.29%, ASML holding ADR rose by 1.72%, Broadcom rose by 0.36%, Intel rose by 1.51%. CNBC reported that the company reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for approximately 8 billion USD in chip bill grants to facilitate factory construction, but the subsidy was reduced from 8.5 billion USD to below 8 billion USD. KLA Corp rose by 0.8%, On Semiconductor rose by 3.98%, AMD rose by 2.01%, Arm Holdings rose by 2.71%, Micron Technology rose by 1.79%, Applied Materials dropped by 0.19%, and Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell by 2.63%.
AI concept stocks showed mixed results. Serve Robotics rose by 5.76%, Super Micro Computer rose by 15.87%, Snowflake rose by 2.38%, BullFrog AI rose by 12.69%, Palantir rose by 0.47%, C3.ai rose by 6.94%, CrowdStrike dropped by 2.3%, BigBear.ai fell by 8.16%, AI voice company SoundHound AI, in which Nvidia holds shares, dropped by 2.67%, Oracle fell by 2.24%, and Dell Technologies fell by 0.03%.
Most China concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.44% to close at 6530.48 points. Among ETFs, the China concept internet index ETF (KWEB) rose by 0.44%, the China technology index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 0.18%, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) rose by 0.15%, while the FTSE China 3x Short ETF (YANG) dropped by 0.21%. The FTSE A50 futures index increased by 0.24% during the continuous night trading to close at 12969.000 points.
Among popular China concept stocks, Zeekr rose by 4.29%, FangDD Network rose by 3.85%, Daqo New Energy rose by 3.24%, Alibaba rose by 2.95%, Baidu rose by 2.91%, and its subsidiary "萝卜快跑" plans to conduct the first phase of testing in Hong Kong by the end of the year. Bilibili rose by 0.88%, Li Auto rose by 0.72%, PDD Holdings rose by 0.62%, while JD.com dropped by 0.49%, Netease fell by 1.21%, and NIO fell by 3.51%. Li Bin sent an internal letter for NIO's tenth anniversary, urging the team to focus on improving the efficiency of the core operational units.
On the news front, UBS group predicts that the MSCI Chinese Index could rise by 5-6% in 2025, believing that any pullback presents a good opportunity for investors. It advises investors to adopt a barbell strategy, balancing investments in high-dividend stocks and growth stocks supported by fundamentals. Internet plus-related is the most favored sector, along with recommendations for education, beer, and the A-share TMT sector. Invesco also sees growth potential in Chinese stocks over the next 12 months.
Bitcoin futures dropped over 2000 USD, falling below 94,000 USD, with cryptocurrency concept stocks showing mixed results. Eastman Kodak rose by 18.6%, Beyond Inc. rose over 9.4%, Ebang International ADR rose over 8.6%, Applied Digital rose over 8.4%, Ethereum ETF FETH rose by 6.65%. The popular brokerage Robinhood rose by about 3.3%, with Morgan Stanley upgrading the company's rating, predicting a 50% stock price increase during Trump's second term. Cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase rose by about 2.5%, while TeraWulf fell by 6.17%, and BTC Digital dropped by 8.26%. MicroStrategy, targeted for short selling by Citron, fell by 4.37%, and institutions Bernstein raised the company's target price, expecting another 40% upside potential.
Among other key stocks: (1) Anglo American PLC ADR rose by 1.62%, the company will sell its remaining coal business, with a transaction value of up to approximately 3.8 billion USD. (2) Buffett will convert some of his Berkshire shares to donate to four family foundations, causing Berkshire B to rise by 0.18%. (3) Macy's fell by 2.21%, as an employee concealed delivery costs between 0.132 billion to 0.154 billion USD, leading the company to delay its third-quarter earnings release to complete an independent investigation. (4) Cassava Sciences (SAVA) fell by 83.78%, marking the largest intraday decline for a US IPO. The result of the company’s ReThin-ALZ Phase 3 clinical trial indicates that Simufilam did not meet the combined endpoint for reducing cognitive or functional decline in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease. (5) After Trump nominated the FDA chief, "affordable weight loss drug" supplier Hims & Hers rose by 23.77%, reaching an all-time high.
European stock markets have risen for three consecutive days, with speculation that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is hopeful; European defense stocks declined, with Saab falling 3.1%:
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.06%, at 508.78 points. The eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.23%, at 4799.87 points. The FTSE pan-European 300 index closed up 0.04%, at 2021.22 points.
Most sectors rose, with housewares and mining stocks both up 1.21%, leading the gains, while oil and gas stocks fell 1%. Among individual stocks, Italy's UniCredit proposed a €10 billion (approximately $10.5 billion) acquisition of Italian bank Banco BPM, resulting in a 4.77% decline in the former's share price and a 5.5% increase in the latter's share price. UniCredit CEO Orcel stated that the possibility of a deal with Deutsche Bank has decreased but is not zero. The likelihood of a Deutsche Bank deal is below expectations, and its share price fell by 5%.
According to incomplete statistics, including four automakers such as Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, Stellantis, and four major parts suppliers, a total of approximately 0.05 million layoffs will occur across these eight companies in Europe. Among the reported automakers, Volkswagen is expected to have the largest number of layoffs, planning to close at least three factories in Germany and lay off thousands of employees to tackle declining profits.
The Italy FTSE MIB index closed down 0.20%. The UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.36%. The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.43%. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.03%. The Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 0.47%. The Netherlands AEX index closed down 0.03%.
Bersent's election as finance minister calms market concerns about the future of the US economy, with the 2/10-year US Treasury yield curve inverting again since October 7:
US Treasury: At the end of trading, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury fell by 13.09 basis points to 4.2692%, trading within a range of 4.3668%-4.2595% throughout the day, in a downward trend, nearing the November 6 bottom of 4.2481% and the October 30 bottom of 4.1962%. The yield on the two-year US Treasury fell by 10.66 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.2664%.
European bonds: In the European market's closing, the benchmark German 10-year treasury notes yield fell by 3.2 basis points to 2.210%, trading in the range of 2.257%-2.197% during the day. The two-year German bond yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 2.024%. The UK 10-year treasury notes yield fell by 4.2 basis points, continuously correcting since it rose to 4.594% on November 6. The two-year UK bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points. The French 10-year treasury notes yield fell by 2.0 basis points. The Italian 10-year treasury notes yield fell by 2.8 basis points.
After Bascent was nominated as finance minister, the dollar index, which had risen for eight consecutive weeks, followed the drop in U.S. treasury yields, falling about 0.6% on Monday, leaving behind a two-year high. The yen briefly broke through 154. The euro rebounded over 0.7%. The renminbi rose 235 points during the day, breaking above 7.24. Bitcoin futures fell about 5.8% on Monday, failing to break above 0.1 million USD, dropping below 0.094 million USD.
Dollar: The dollar index DXY fell 0.59% to 106.922 points, gapping down and remaining in a downward state throughout the day, with an intraday trading range of 107.247-106.583 points, previously rising to 108.071 points on November 22. Bloomberg dollar index fell 0.48% to 1285.04 points, with an intraday trading range of 1288.53-1281.97 points.
On the news front, Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar will peak by the end of the year and enter a bear market with gradual depreciation by 2025. The firm believes that, given the potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates while the Reserve Bank of Australia's easing actions will be gradual, the yen and the Australian dollar have the most potential for appreciation next year. Deutsche Bank strategists expect the euro to the dollar to fall to parity by the second quarter of 2025, citing central bank repricing and additional dollar risk premium. The degree of weakness in the euro will depend on the policies of the Trump administration, the implementation speed, and the policy responses of other countries. It is expected that by 2026, Europe's policy responses may boost the euro.
Non-U.S. currencies: The euro rose by 0.72% to 1.0493 against the dollar, having fallen to 1.0335 on November 22. The pound rose by 0.28% to 1.2565 against the dollar, having also fallen to 1.2487 on November 22. The dollar fell by 0.85% against the Swiss franc, reporting 0.8863; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose by 0.04% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.20% against the dollar, and the dollar rose by 0.07% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona rose by 0.46% against the dollar, while the Norwegian krone fell by 0.20% against the dollar.
Yen: The yen rose 0.36% against the USD at the close, reporting at 154.21 yen, with an intraday trading range of 154.72-153.55 yen.
Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi (CNH) rose 129 points against the USD at the close, reporting at 7.2468 yuan, with overall intraday trading in the range of 7.2578-7.2362 yuan.
Cryptocurrency: The largest market cap leading bitcoin futures fell 5.79% at the close, reporting at 93,955.00 USD, gapping down on Monday and remaining in a declining state throughout the day, with intraday trading in the range of 99,275.00-93,880.00 USD. The second-largest, ethereum, rose 3.21% at the close, reporting at 3,437.00 USD, with intraday trading in the range of 3,313.00-3,558.00 USD. Wall Street is preparing to launch a new generation of cryptocurrency-related ETFs to cater to various investors.
The situation in the Middle East shows signs of easing, with US oil futures closing down over 3.2%. Reports indicate that Trump is formulating an energy plan to promote natural gas exports, and European natural gas futures rose over 2%.
US oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed down 2.30 USD, a drop of nearly 3.23%, reporting at 68.94 USD/barrel. US oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, with the Dow Jones dropping over 3.5% to approach 68.70 USD during the lunch hour.
Brent oil: Brent January crude oil futures closed down 2.16 USD, a drop of over 2.87%, reporting at 73.01 USD/barrel. Brent oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 3.1% to approach 72.80 USD during the lunch hour.
In news, OPEC+ has changed the oil policy meeting on December 1 to an online meeting, marking the organization's third consecutive adjustment to the meeting format. Iranian officials state that OPEC+ has little room to restore previous production cuts. Reports indicate that the Trump team is preparing a large energy plan to promote natural gas exports and oil drilling.
Natural gas: NYMEX December US natural gas futures rose 7.67%, closing at 3.3690 USD/million BTU. The European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures increased by 2.24%, closing at 47.900 EUR/ton. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 2.71%, closing at 120.160 pence/kcal.
Reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, along with Trump's nomination of Basint as US Treasury Secretary, weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, causing both futures and spot gold to drop over 3%, ending a five-day rise and a three-week high.
Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 3.13% at the close, reporting at 2627.40 USD/ounce. Spot gold maintained a downward trend throughout the day, dropping nearly 3.6% to below 2616 USD after midday, ending a five-day rise.
Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 3.09% at the close, reporting at 30.370 USD/ounce, with a cumulative increase of 3.00% this week. Spot silver dropped nearly 4% during the US stock market's midday session, falling below 30.10 USD.
In news, UBS indicated that some investors believe Basint's negative impact on the trade war is minimal. The vice president of Zaner Metals stated that a cut of 25 basis points is expected in December, but recent remarks from Federal Reserve spokespersons regarding the outlook for 2025 have taken a more cautious tone, which may bring some resistance to gold.
The USD and US bond yields moved lower together, helping to push all London industrial metals higher: London copper closed up 78 USD at 9046 USD/ton. COMEX copper futures rose 0.48%, reporting at 4.1045 USD/pound. London zinc closed up 54 USD at 3020 USD/ton. London aluminum closed up 28 USD at 2652 USD/ton. London lead closed up 7 USD at 2029 USD/ton. London nickel closed up 233 USD at 16203 USD/ton. London tin closed up 62 USD at 28976 USD/ton. London cobalt remained flat at 24300 USD/ton.
New York coffee futures hit a new high since 1997, as investors worry about the impact of drought conditions on the output of major producers like Brazil and Vietnam.
Editor / jayden
