消息面上，贝森特获美国财长提名，投资者预计他会优先考虑经济和市场稳定，打开“姆努钦2.0”时代，知道红线在哪里，新政府的财政政策将采取循序渐进的方式，分阶段实施关税政策，而非特朗普竞选时承诺的那么激进。这令美元和比特币下跌、美债涨。Profit-taking sentiment for bitcoin is strong, continuing the weekend's decline. On the news front, Besant has been nominated by the US Treasury Secretary, and investors expect he will prioritize economic and market stability, which has caused the dollar and bitcoin to drop while US bonds rise. There is also good news in the crypto space: Wall Street is preparing to launch a new generation of crypto-related etfs, catering to various investor preferences. Additionally, the large bitcoin holder MSTR had its target price significantly raised by Bernstein and others, resulting in a strong opening for MSTR, but it ultimately closed down over 4%.
On Monday, November 25th, bitcoin continued its downward trend from the weekend, dipping below $0.093 million at one point during the trading session. Bitcoin's attempt last week to break through the $0.1 million mark was unsuccessful, with strong profit-taking sentiment leading to an accumulated drop of about $6,000 from its historical high.
That day, stocks related to blockchain technology saw mixed results.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$The leading crypto digital currency exchange rose by about 2.5%; $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ rose by 1.5%, "large bitcoin holder" $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Fell over 4%,$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$fell more than 6%.
In news, Basent was nominated by the US Treasury Secretary, and investors expect him to prioritize economic and market stability, marking the beginning of the "Mnuchin 2.0" era. He understands where the red line is, and the new government's fiscal policy will take a gradual approach, implementing tariff policies in phases, rather than being as aggressive as promised during Trump's campaign. This caused the dollar and bitcoin to drop while US Treasury bonds rose.
There was also good news in the crypto space on the same day. Currently, Wall Street is actively preparing to launch new crypto-related etfs. With the support of digital currency assets, Trump elected as the next president of the USA, media reports that executives and lawyers involved in ETFs indicate that they are formulating strategies to cater to the preferences of different investors.
The new cryptocurrency-related etfs currently in preparation include defensive etfs aimed at professional fund managers interested in cryptocurrencies, as well as highly speculative bets aimed at individuals with a high-risk appetite.$E Fund Deposit Income Money Market Fund-A (159001.SZ)$May focus on a variety of digital tokens, sometimes using leverage, options or algo strategies.
Previously, some cryptocurrency-related etfs that purely track bitcoin have attracted billions of dollars since the US election.
It is widely expected in the industry that under Trump's administration, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will be more accepting of new digital currency products than under the Biden administration. The SEC may welcome new leadership, and the etf industry is entering a "wild west" era.
Currently, several digital asset companies have applied to the SEC to launch ETFs tracking$Solana (SOL.CC)$, XRP and$Litecoin (LTC.CC)$and other cryptos. The chances of these ETFs being approved under the SEC led by Gary Gensler are very slim, but under new government leadership, their currency probability may be higher. In addition,$Aave (AAVE.CC)$、$Uniswap (UNI.CC)$Tokens like Maker are also suitable for etf products.
On the same day, the well-known Wall Street institution Bernstein significantly raised the target price for "bitcoin large holder" MSTR from $290 to $600, anticipating an additional 40% upside. This is in stark contrast to the recent bearish stance by Citron.
Bernstein expects that by 2033, MSTR will own 4% of the global bitcoin supply. Currently, the company holds 1.7% of the supply. Bernstein believes that MSTR's bitcoin asset management model is unparalleled. According to Bernstein, bitcoin is in a structural bull market, with favorable regulations, support from the usa government, adoption by institutions, and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
In addition, another brokerage firm Canaccord raised its target price for MSTR from $300 to $510 and reaffirmed its buy rating. Canaccord stated that a new approach should be used to value MSTR. "Traditional profit and loss metrics are no longer applicable to MSTR because the company's software business only accounts for a single-digit percentage of its current enterprise value. The dollarized per-share BTC appreciation reflects everything that is happening with MSTR."
MSTR CEO Michael Saylor commented on being shorted, stating that Citron does not understand where MSTR's premium relative to bitcoin comes from. The company not only profits from volatility trading but also leverages through ATM operations, so as long as bitcoin continues to rise, the company can still make money, which is an important profit point that short sellers overlook. "Calculating an 80% bitcoin spread, $3 billion in ATM financing can bring about $125 per share in earnings over 10 years."
MSTR surged 6% in pre-market trading on Monday, but later fell back, ultimately closing down over 4%.
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