This article is edited from CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. "if the inflection point of the epidemic occurs, what should we match? "GF Securities Co., LTD." if the epidemic ushered in an inflection point, what would be configured? "

I. initial results in epidemic prevention and control

Judging from the new confirmed and suspected cases, the first phase of epidemic prevention and control has achieved preliminary results since February 6.

For the COVID-19 epidemic, the market consensus, that is, as long as the event shock does not destroy the core logic of the stock market (does not change the long-term direction of the Chinese economy), it will provide buying opportunities.

II. 03Year experience: after the inflection point, the configuration should pay more attention to the medium-term growth plate.

Reviewing the experience of SARS in 2003, Guangfa believes that after the inflection point, the configuration should pay more attention to the medium-term growth plate.

1. In 2003, during the period from the inflection point of the epidemic to the basic end of the incident (May 9-June 24), the market showed that the early performance of the epidemic benefited from the epidemic or the defense sector medicine and banks lagged far behind, while TMT, which was less affected by the epidemic, took the lead.

2. Two months after the end of the incident (June 24-August 31), TMT still performed best.

3. From two months after the impact of the event was basically digested to the end of the year (August 31-December 31), the market style returned to the logic of the medium-term main line-the five golden flowers.

According to the above timeline, Guangfa concluded that after the inflection point appeared, the characteristics of the market development were: the epidemic benefit or pure risk aversion industry performance from leading to lagging behind (such as the media), and the industry with medium-term growth logic began to lead the market (TMT).), and finally the industry rotates to the cycle plate represented by the five golden flowers.

Map to the presentGuangfa believes that at presentShort-term benefit plateThere are: a. Media (video, games); b. Internet health care, online office; c. IT infrastructure (IDC, server, storage), whichPurely event-driven are video, telecommuting and so on.It is expected that after the inflection point of the epidemic occurs, it will rise from leading to lagging behind.

Driven by the explosive growth of short-term medical informatization and online office, the transmission rate is accelerated and data traffic breaks out in the superimposed 5G era.ITInfrastructure has medium-term growth logicAssuming a periodic pullback, but still optimistic about the upward momentum, it is recommended to pay attention.

Finally, it isThe plate affected by the event is limited and logically stable in the medium term, which is also the direction of the follow-up focus.:

1)Electron(consumer electronics, semiconductors, panels): the semiconductor industry cycle has entered the upward period, the impact of the Spring Festival shutdown is limited, the 5G industry cycle has entered a period of rapid growth, and the electronic sector has exploded the elasticity of profit growth.

2)New energy vehicle industry chainFor those with clear top-down promotion, huge industrial space and dense potential catalysts, special attention should be paid to battery links.

(3)Software5G business provides support for the application scenarios of all kinds of device interconnection at the technical level of communication. Correspondingly, it brings the development soil of all kinds of emerging applications. With the beginning of the era of the Internet of everything, the interaction of all kinds of IOT devices has been enhanced, and the demand for software has increased significantly.

Citic Construction Investment also judged that cloud computing in computers, semiconductors in chips, new energy vehicles, medical information and other directions will continue to dominate in the future. He believes thatAt present, the core targets of Hong Kong technology stocks still have significant advantages compared with US stocks and A shares in valuation, and the valuation repair has not yet been completed. In addition, the epidemic incident has led to a pullback in the sector and ushered in a better time to buy.